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Field
Last Published
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Before
February 16, 2024 04:32 PM
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After
August 06, 2024 11:03 AM
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Field
Primary Outcomes (End Points)
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Before
Loan performance: First, we plan to examine outcomes that capture the repayment activity by borrowers. This includes (i) how much borrowers pay month by month; (ii) the number of missed installments; (iii) NPV of the cash flow in the one year after the experiment; (iv) measures of delinquencies and default, month over month and over the one year; (v) a summary index of above measures.
Labor Supply Outcomes: Second, we plan to examine the outcomes of firm’s labor supply measure during the intervention period. For instance, using the lender’s proprietary data on borrowers’ driving, we can observe the number of trips that the firm has conducted per period, the total length of the trip, the distance driven. We will also be looking at the number of times firms were involved in an accident, obtained through data on their insurance claims, and of over-speeding.
Repayment and borrowings from other debt sources: We will analyze spillovers on other forms of borrowings reported in the credit bureau data. This includes any adverse flag, amount of debt overdue, late payments, new account openings, the share of borrowings overdue, total borrowings, borrowings by different sources, and defaults on those debts.
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After
1. Index of Loan performance
2. Index of Labor Supply
See the description below and more details are available in the Pre-Analysis Plan
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Primary Outcomes (Explanation)
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Before
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After
1. Index of Loan performance: we will examine an index of loan performance, which combines information from three of the lender’s key metrics to assess performance. To be precise, the index is constructed as the (equally weighted) average of three metrics defined below, after they are standardized to have zero mean and standard deviation one. The components are:
i. Indicator variable of whether the account is not current.
Definition: An account is not current if Total arrears < 100 ZAR in the month, with unmet obligations > 30 days late considered arrears.
ii. Total Arrears Amount.
Definition: Total Arrears Amount reported by the lender.
iii. Total Arrears Amount, Scaled
Definition: Total Arrears Amount divided by Monthly Owed Installment.
Monthly loan performance: measured as a snapshot taken each monthly reporting date.
12-month loan performance: measured as a snapshot taken on the 12th-month reporting date.
Dealing with unbalanced panel of loan performance. If a loan leaves the books, we will impute that month and subsequent months as follows:
• Current and zero arrears, for a loan paid in full
• Not current and the last observed arrears amount, for a loan not repaid in full
2. Index of Labor Supply: we examine an index of labor supply, which combines information from four key metrics constructed using the GPS data on borrowers’ driving. As before, the index is constructed as the (equally weighted) average of the metrics defined below, after they are standardized to have zero mean and standard deviation one. The components of the index are:
i. Distance driven (in kms).
Definition: Sum of the total distance covered by the vehicle.
ii. Number of hours driven.
Definition: Sum of the total time the vehicle was active.
iii. Number of days worked.
Definition: Sum of total number of days worked in the month. A working day is defined as the day in which non-zero trips were made.
iv. Number of hours on the job:
Definition: The total duration between vehicle first trip of the day and the end of the last trip of a day.
Monthly labor supply measures: Total for a given month.
12-month labor supply measures: Summed across all months.
Dealing with unbalanced panel of labor supply measures: We will only have data for drivers while their loan is on the books. We do not plan to impute missing values.
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Secondary Outcomes (End Points)
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Before
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After
Details in Pre-Analysis Plan
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Field
Secondary Outcomes (Explanation)
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Before
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After
Details in Pre-Analysis Plan
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