Using Point Forecasts to Anchor Probabilistic Survey Scales

Last registered on March 06, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Using Point Forecasts to Anchor Probabilistic Survey Scales
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013118
Initial registration date
February 29, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 06, 2024, 4:36 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Alexander Glas
Affiliation
ZEW - Leibniz Center for European Economic Research
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2023-02-15
End date
2023-03-01
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We conduct an experiment where a random subset of the participants in the Bundesbank's household panel receive personalized response scales, centered at each respondent's point forecast. Personalized scales mitigate the impact of central tendency bias and eliminate the need to adjust the scale when inflation falls outside the range for which the scale was designed.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Glas, Alexander. 2024. "Using Point Forecasts to Anchor Probabilistic Survey Scales." AEA RCT Registry. March 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13118-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2023-02-15
Intervention End Date
2023-03-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Point forecasts and probabilistic expectations for the inflation rate in Germany.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Our treatment design was included in Wave 38 of the monthly BOP-HH. The survey includes three questions on inflation expectations: The answer to the first (qualitative) question determines whether the respondent is asked about the rate of inflation or deflation in the second question. The second (quantitative) question asks for a point forecast of the future inflation/deflation rate. The treatment intervention occurs after this question. The reported point forecast, which may include up to one decimal place, determines the center of the response scale for respondents in the Personalized treatment. The respondents in Baseline receive the standard scale which is centered at zero inflation. We then compare the point forecasts and probabilistic expectations of both groups.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization is done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual-level randomization
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
One cross-section of households.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Approximately 3,500 household heads.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
2,100 (Personalized) versus 1,400 (baseline).
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials