Controversial Political Expression and Social Image Concern: Experimental Evidence from China

Last registered on March 19, 2024

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Controversial Political Expression and Social Image Concern: Experimental Evidence from China

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0013194

Initial registration date

March 19, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

March 19, 2024, 5:41 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country

China

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Tianyu Zheng

Affiliation

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2024-03-20

End date

2024-04-07

Keywords

Behavior

Additional Keywords

Social Image concern; Political Expression; Social cover

JEL code(s)

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

This project studies the motivations behind controversial political expression from the perspective of social image concern. On August 23, 2023, Japan initiated the discharge of treated radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima Nuclear Plant into the Pacific Ocean, a move that provoked significant backlash across Asian countries, particularly in China, where anti-Japan sentiment is deeply ingrained due to historical and geopolitical reasons. The study takes the unique context of the anti-Japan expression in China following Japan’s discharge to investigate the public expression towards this event. I hypothesize that public expressions are driven by two primary motivations: the anti-Japan ideology, which is controversial due to its association with extreme nationalism, and concerns about the environmental consequence, which constitute a non-controversial motivation. In a theoretical model, I show that increasing the perceived prevalence of non-controversial motivations among the public can encourage individuals to engage in controversial expressions by providing a "social cover". Conversely, increasing the perception of proportion of the public with a controversial motivation has theoretically ambiguous effect on individual decision. I then design two online experiments to test the model prediction.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Zheng, Tianyu. 2024. "Controversial Political Expression and Social Image Concern: Experimental Evidence from China." AEA RCT Registry. March 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13194-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

We will run two experiments. In both experiment, participants are asked to fill out an online survey. We will vary the information provided in the survey regarding second order beliefs about anti-Japan attitudes or environmental concern. Subsequently, participants are provided opportunity to sign a petition to oppose the release and boycott Japanese product. In experiment I, we additionally vary if the signature on the petition is observable or not.

Intervention Start Date

2024-03-20

Intervention End Date

2024-04-07

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

Petition signing, and Inference of people's motivation for signing the petition.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Online Experiment I adopts a 2x3 factorial design to examine the effect of varied information on participants’ willingness to engage in public expressions of dissent. Participants are asked to fill out a survey related to environemtal issues. They are then segmented into three groups, each receiving different information:
• The first group receives information about the percentage of college students concerned about ocean pollution from our pilot survey.
• The second group receives information about the percentage holding negative views of Japan from our pilot survey.
• The control group receives no information.
Participants are then provided with opportunity to sign a petition opposing the wastewater discharge and boycotting Japanese products. At this stage, we manipulate the visibility of the petition signature: in one condition, signatures are public; in another, they remain anonymous.

Online Experiment II introduces information varying on the intensive margin. In this experiment, participants are divided into four treatment groups, with each group exposed to a different set of information regarding anti-Japan sentiment and environmental concerns: The first treatment group is provided with information indicating a high proportion of people holding anti-Japan view among a subset of survey participants. Conversely, the second group receives data showing a low proportion of such view. Similarly, the third group is informed about a high proportion of people concerning about ocean pollution, while the fourth group learns of a lower proportion, with each group’s information coming from different subsets of our data.
Following the introduction of this varied information, all participants are given the oppor- tunity to sign the same petition as in Experiment I, which opposes the wastewater discharge and supports boycotting Japanese products. To deepen our understanding of the mechanism, we also conduct a separate survey to elicit people’s belief about the motivations behind others’ decisions to sign the petition.

Recruitment for both experiments targets students from a specific local university in Beijing, using WeChat and email lists to reach prospective participants.

Hypothesis: Our theoretical model predicts that increasing the perceived prevalence of non-controversial motivations among the public can encourage individuals to engage in controversial expressions by providing a "social cover". Conversely, increasing the perception of proportion of the public with a controversial motivation has theoretically ambiguous effect on individual decision.

Experimental Design Details

Randomization Method

Randomization done on survey platform

Randomization Unit

Individual

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

Experiment I: 400 individuals
Experiment II: 800 individuals

Sample size: planned number of observations

Experiment I: 400 individuals Experiment II: 800 individuals

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

Experiment I
67 individuals Anti-Japan info X Public, 67 individuals Environmental concern info X Public, 67 individuals No info X Public, 67 individuals Anti-Japan info X Private, 66 individuals Environmental concern info X Private, 66 individuals No info X Private.

Experiment II
Petition survey: 100 individuals low Anti-Japan proportion, 100 individuals high Anti-Japan proportion, 100 individuals low Envir. concern proportion, 100 individuals high Envir. concern proportion.
Inference survey: 100 individuals low Anti-Japan proportion, 100 individuals high Anti-Japan proportion, 100 individuals low Envir. concern proportion, 100 individuals high Envir. concern proportion.

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB