The General Equilibrium Effects of Graduation Programs: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia

Last registered on April 16, 2024

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The General Equilibrium Effects of Graduation Programs: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013236
Initial registration date
April 11, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 16, 2024, 2:47 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Oxford University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
World Bank
PI Affiliation
World Bank
PI Affiliation
IFPRI

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2023-05-01
End date
2025-09-30
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This entry covers the evaluation of the impact of Livelihood (LH) interventions in the context of Ethiopia’s rural Productive Safety Net Project (PSNP) using a nationwide clustered randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate. This economic inclusion (EI) program provides livelihood services to a subset of PSNP public work households. It complements the transfers received as remuneration for the participation in public works by a sequenced package of training and coaching as well as a livelihood grant or facilitated access to subsidized credit. This evaluation will estimate the direct impact of the interventions on beneficiaries and will examine who benefits the most from them. It will investigate the value-added of additional government implemented life-skills training. Finally, it will study the indirect (spillover) effects of these interventions on the local economy.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Abate, Gashaw et al. 2024. "The General Equilibrium Effects of Graduation Programs: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia." AEA RCT Registry. April 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13236-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We evaluate the impact of Livelihoods (LH) interventions in the context of Ethiopia’s rural Productive Safety Net Project (PSNP). This EI program provides livelihood services to a subset of PSNP public work households. It complements the transfers received as remuneration for participation in public works by a sequenced package of training and coaching as well as a livelihood grant or facilitated access to subsidized credit. The program targets woredas with timely payments in past iterations of the PSNP program, and aims to cover all major regions within Ethiopia. A total of 34 woredas were selected to implement LH interventions, and the project was designed to cover around 40,000 households in the first year of implementation, when the IE will be implemented.

Within participating woredas, we randomize LH interventions across kebele – administrative units of approximately 500 households each. In kebeles selected for LH, public works clients are invited to express interest in participating via a newly introduced targeting or “profiling” exercise. Clients who express interest in participating go through a targeting exercise which assigns each interested client household a wealth ranking, credit score, and commitment score. Households with the lowest wealth rank (20% of the livelihood caseload) are selected for the grant track (300USD$ in cash), while households with the highest credit scores are selected for the credit track (80% of the livelihood caseload). Households are encouraged to diversify their activities and can choose between an on-farm and off-farm pathway, which determines the type of technical training they will receive. Development Agents (DAs) and Community Facilitators (CF) then form groups of beneficiaries and deliver training in financial literacy, technical training (depending on the pathway chosen), business skills, business planning over a four to five months period. In selected kebeles, they also receive life-skills training. After developing a business plan, clients are linked with microfinance institutions to apply for credit or receive the grant. Finally, they receive weekly coaching sessions organized by CFs over the 12 months following the reception of the grant/application for credit.
Intervention Start Date
2023-06-01
Intervention End Date
2025-06-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Training participation (Life skills, business and technical skills), Receipt (Grant, Credit), Coaching participation, Skills, Business, Assets, Consumption (HH, Aggregate), Income (HH, Aggregate)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Labor Supply, Health (Physical, Mental), Social capital, Children's well being, Women's empowerment, Woreda Prices (Output, Input), Migration
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
348 Kebele in our survey sample, randomnly selected among participating kebele, stratified at the Woreda level (30 Woreda), into:
Control: 116 Kebele
Livelihoods without Life Skills Training: 116 Kebele
Livelihoods with Life Skills Training: 116 Kebele

In each Kebele, households in the "Missing Middle" stratum (described below) were randomly assigned to LH-Credit and Control. We sampled 5 households in each of these groups, and as a consequence in our survey sample:
Missing Middle LH-Credit: 5 households/Kebele
Missing Middle Control: 5 households/Kebele
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Across Kebele: Public lottery
Across Households: Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Kebele randomization: 348
Household randomization: 3480 (out of 8700 sampled households)
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
348 Kebele
Sample size: planned number of observations
8700 households
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Across Kebele:
116 Kebele (2900 households): Control
116 Kebele (2900 households): Livelihoods without Life Skills Training
116 Kebele (2900 households): Livelihoods with Life Skills Training

Within Kebele:
5 households/Kebele: Lowest wealth ranks (LH-Grant eligible, not marginally eligible)
5 households/Kebele: Next lowest wealth ranks (LH-Grant eligible, marginally eligible)
5 households/Kebele: Higher wealth rank, high credit preparedness score (LH-Credit eligible)
10 households/Kebele: Higher wealth rank, low credit preparedness score ("Missing middle")
--> In LH villages: 5 Missing Middle sampled who were assigned to LH-Credit, 5 sampled who were assigned to Control
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
details in the PAP
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Oxford Department of Economics Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2023-02-13
IRB Approval Number
ECONCIA22-23-14
IRB Name
Ethiopian Society of Sociologists, Social Workers And Anthropologists
IRB Approval Date
2023-03-06
IRB Approval Number
002/2023