Complexity and Uncertainty

Last registered on April 26, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Complexity and Uncertainty
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013335
Initial registration date
April 23, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 26, 2024, 12:27 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region
Arizona

Primary Investigator

Name
Alexander Toy
Affiliation
Arizona State University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Andreas Kostol
PI Affiliation
Arizona State University
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PI Name
Mark Whitmeyer
PI Affiliation
Arizona State University
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PI Name
Kristin Whitmeyer
PI Affiliation
Arizona State University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-05-06
End date
2024-08-30
Keywords
Behavior, Labor
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We use a field experiment at the biggest employer on a large college campus to examine how individuals make labor supply decisions when facing variable wages and a complex tax schedule.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Kostol, Andreas et al. 2024. "Complexity and Uncertainty." AEA RCT Registry. April 26. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13335-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We randomize individuals into different wage levels and information treatments about a tax schedule.
Intervention (Hidden)
We assign individuals into two groups the first being a constant wage, the second being a random wage equal in expectation to the constant wage. We inform individuals that after a certain earnings amount their earnings will be taxed at a given rate and require individuals to make on the fly cumulative earnings calculations to optimally alter their labor supply. These groups are then split again into two groups where one group receives an additional information intervention about the tax and the other group does not.
Intervention Start Date
2024-05-06
Intervention End Date
2024-08-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Labor Supply
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
We hope to see individuals internalize the tax threshold and alter their labor supply in accordance to this with varying degrees of accuracy based on their treatment status.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We recruit individuals to do simple tasks at a campus employer, the participants make a labor supply decision every 10 minutes to continue working based on a drawn wage and information about a tax on future wages after cumulative earnings hits a threshold.
Experimental Design Details
Individuals are recruited. Recruits are randomized into four treatment groups (1a,1b,2a,2b) prior to arrival at the work location one group (1) will receive a constant wage every 10 minutes and the other (2) will receive a random wage every 10 minutes with expectation equal to the constant wage. They are told that after a certain earnings level their wage will then be taxed at a given rate. The individuals will then be assigned to work simple labor tasks and make the decision every 10 minutes whether or not to continue working. After some time individuals take a survey where they are given another information treatment where one group (a) is not reminded about the tax and another group (b) is given a small text in their survey reminding them of the tax method. We collect from individuals demographic information, some additional information about mathematics comprehension, and their labor supply decision.
Randomization Method
randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
200 - 300 Individuals, Potentially more based on additional funding
Sample size: planned number of observations
200 - 300 Individuals, Potentially more based on additional funding
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
200 - 300 Individuals, Potentially more based on additional funding
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Arizona State University Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2024-04-09
IRB Approval Number
STUDY00019841
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials