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Characterization Failure, Confidence, and Choice: A Behavioral Welfare Analysis of Decisions Under Risk and Certainty

Last registered on September 29, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Characterization Failure, Confidence, and Choice: A Behavioral Welfare Analysis of Decisions Under Risk and Certainty
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013337
Initial registration date
April 12, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 16, 2024, 3:15 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
September 29, 2026, 2:55 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Charles Sprenger
Affiliation
Caltech
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Kirby Nielsen
PI Affiliation
Caltech
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Aldo Lucia
PI Affiliation
Caltech
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2024-04-16
End date
2024-04-17
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We conduct an online experiment where subjects make two types of choices: one involving monetary lotteries and another involving riskless alternatives, the values of which can be computed through simple mathematical operations. The objective of the study is to evaluate whether subjects display similar behaviors in these two environments and to understand why.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Lucia, Aldo, Kirby Nielsen and Charles Sprenger. 2026. "Characterization Failure, Confidence, and Choice: A Behavioral Welfare Analysis of Decisions Under Risk and Certainty." AEA RCT Registry. September 29. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13337-1.3
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2024-04-16
Intervention End Date
2024-04-17

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
There are three main outcome variables of interests:
- Distribution of choices between monetary lotteries and between riskless options.
- Indicators that summarizes whether subjects correctly fill the tables in each task.
- Distribution of self-reported confidence measures.

We refer to the analysis plan for a detailed description of the key outcome variables.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We ask individuals to make choices between risky monetary lotteries and riskless monetary values. We present the riskless options as lotteries with multiple states of the world associated with the same monetary amount. The unique monetary amount must be determined by subjects through expected value computation. Subjects are required to reproduce the mapping from possible states of the world to prizes for each risky or riskless lottery using tables. The experiment includes three treatments, which differ in when subjects complete these tables and whether their responses in the tables are incentivized. After choosing their preferred option, subjects are required to express their confidence in their choices.

We refer to the analysis plan for a detailed description of the experimental design.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
999 online participants
Sample size: planned number of observations
999 online participants
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
333 online participants
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Caltech Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2023-01-23
IRB Approval Number
IR23-1282
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Analysis Plan.pdf

MD5: 21c9a5f5533bb251ce52077368dfbec0

SHA1: 1ed6150fee4c249c4b12fda03030e33f0ec9545b

Uploaded At: April 12, 2024

Confidence Follow Up Plan.pdf

MD5: 4bc4140baa7a74f7d356ce7697c508c2

SHA1: ff9b030984ead86b0af33a3561aa399f17601188

Uploaded At: September 29, 2026

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials