Experimental Design
In the BonnEconLab at the University of Bonn, I will conduct a laboratory experiment in April 2024. The timeline of one session is as follows:
1. Before subjects enter the laboratory, one of two treatment conditions is randomly determined (Treated vs. Control). Approximately 25 subjects enter the laboratory, are randomly assigned to a role (Player1, Player2, Observer), and are seated in individual cubicles. Treatment variation concerns how Player1 generates die rolls: with a physical die (Treated) vs. with a die roll computer (Control); Player2 always uses a separate die roll computer. (The Observer role will serve as a control role, providing beliefs for the same events as Player1.)
2. Subjects complete the experiment individually in their cubicles, involving the following steps:
a. Subjects read experimental instructions as well as the rules of the board game “Ludo” and complete comprehension questions for both. (The board game is highly popular in Germany and nicely combines experimental control with a natural setting.)
b. Subjects provide three beliefs each for five different game situations (first three beliefs for the first situation, then three beliefs for the second situation etc.). The order of the five situations is randomized, but within each situation, the belief elicitation order of the three beliefs is as follows: belief of winning (B1 – B5) (for Player1 and Player2: of themselves winning, respectively; for Observer: of Player1 winning); confidence in belief of winning (Confidence1 – Confidence5); belief of the extent to which skill vs. luck matters in a given situation (Control1 – Control5). B1 – B5 is the main outcome of the experiment.
c. Subjects provide the same three beliefs for a sixth situation (B6, Confidence6, Control6) with the one difference being that the event is not winning the board game (which is highly complex or even impossible to calculate, depending on the game situation) but rolling a certain number in the next die roll (simple and straightforward to calculate).
d. Subjects provide additional data: belief about the importance of winning (Importance); decision which of two pieces to move for three separate situations (serving as “Ludo puzzles” measuring strategic understanding of the game, used for exclusion restriction later); belief how often a certain number is rolled if the experimenter uses the die / die roll computer (DieRollBet).
e. Subjects provide additional data: familiarity with the game; gender; religiosity; automation preferences; belief about whether cheating in the game was possible.
3. When all subjects have completed the survey, three subjects from this session are randomly selected (one of each role), and one game situation is randomly selected. This game situation is then implemented with the randomly selected subjects: Player1 and Player2 actually play against each other, while Observer watches a live stream in a separate room. Simultaneously, the other subjects receive their compensation in another room and are then dismissed. After the game is over, the three randomly selected subjects also receive their compensation and are then dismissed.