| Field | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Field Last Published | Before April 16, 2024 03:28 PM | After May 14, 2024 11:45 AM |
| Field Intervention (Public) | Before Pentecostal Christianity is linked strongly with increased aspirations, hope, and trust, all factors which economists have identified to play a major role in economic development and poverty alleviation. (e.g., Nunn and Wantchekon, 2011, Lybbert and Wydick, 2018; Genicot and Ray, 2020; Bloem, 2021; McKenzie et al., 2022). Much of the recent economic literature has focused on the drivers of the strong global growth of Pentecostal Christianity. In Brazil, for instance, Costa et al. (2023) find that recessions lead to increases in Pentecostal affiliation, likely due to increased social insurance provided by the churches. However, an open question is how the practices and beliefs of Pentecostalism change economic behavior. Understanding this question requires entangling the direction of causality: are those who are more aspirational more likely to join Pentecostal churches, or do the practices and beliefs taught in Pentecostalism make one more aspirational? The global rise in Neo-Pentecostal and Charismatic Christianity (hereafter NPC) in recent decades has been dramatic, particularly in the Global South. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in particular, it is estimated that there were approximately 229 million adherents to this form of Christianity as of 2020 and it is the fastest growing religious group in the region (Johnson and Grim, 2023). The continued spread of NPC may have important implications for economic growth in one of the least economically developed regions of the world. Freeman (2015) describes that particular traits of NPC can have significant economic impacts, such as a focus on material wealth and well-being as a reward for faith (i.e., the “Prosperity Gospel”), which empowers individuals to take risks and stimulates entrepreneurial behavior. Indeed, Van Dijk (2012) describes sermons in NPC churches as explicitly presenting the Christian Gospel as a roadmap to economic success. Randomized experiments can aid in identifying the relationship between religious affiliation/beliefs and economic outcomes. This proposed research project will provide the first randomization-based evidence on economic outcomes arising from NPC messages such as the prosperity gospel. To this point, however, there have been few randomized interventions related to religion in developing countries. One notable example, however, is Bryan et al. (2021), who in the Philippines show that poor households randomly selected to participate in an Evangelical Protestant education program have higher religiosity and income, the latter of which the authors attribute to an increase in ``grit.’’ We plan to diverge from this previous work by learning the economic effects of an intensive but short-term program related to NPC messaging in an African setting. Butinda et al. (2023) highlight how economists have largely underestimated the impact of beliefs in influencing economic development in Africa. This setting and design allows us to uncover increasingly relevant and generalizable evidence into the developmental implications of the fastest growing religious doctrine across the continent. In our proposed project, we plan to organize intensive religious workshops to occur over two-days within informal settlements of Kisumu, Kenya. These workshops will serve as the intervention exposure, providing different forms of religious messaging to attendees randomly assigned to attend that workshops. We expect these workshops to be two days long to generate significant enough exposure to generate potential differences in behavior, but not so long as to be too inconvenient to the attendees. | After Pentecostal Christianity is linked strongly with increased aspirations, hope, and trust, all factors which economists have identified to play a major role in economic development and poverty alleviation. (e.g., Nunn and Wantchekon, 2011, Lybbert and Wydick, 2018; Genicot and Ray, 2020; Bloem, 2021; McKenzie et al., 2022). Much of the recent economic literature has focused on the drivers of the strong global growth of Pentecostal Christianity. In Brazil, for instance, Costa et al. (2023) find that recessions lead to increases in Pentecostal affiliation, likely due to increased social insurance provided by the churches. However, an open question is how the practices and beliefs of Pentecostalism change economic behavior. Understanding this question requires entangling the direction of causality: are those who are more aspirational more likely to join Pentecostal churches, or do the practices and beliefs taught in Pentecostalism make one more aspirational? The global rise in Neo-Pentecostal and Charismatic Christianity (hereafter NPC) in recent decades has been dramatic, particularly in the Global South. In Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in particular, it is estimated that there were approximately 229 million adherents to this form of Christianity as of 2020 and it is the fastest growing religious group in the region (Johnson and Grim, 2023). The continued spread of NPC may have important implications for economic growth in one of the least economically developed regions of the world. Freeman (2015) describes that particular traits of NPC can have significant economic impacts, such as a focus on material wealth and well-being as a reward for faith (i.e., the “Prosperity Gospel”), which empowers individuals to take risks and stimulates entrepreneurial behavior. Indeed, Van Dijk (2012) describes sermons in NPC churches as explicitly presenting the Christian Gospel as a roadmap to economic success. Randomized experiments can aid in identifying the relationship between religious affiliation/beliefs and economic outcomes. This proposed research project will provide the first randomization-based evidence on economic outcomes arising from NPC messages such as the prosperity gospel. To this point, however, there have been few randomized interventions related to religion in developing countries. One notable example, however, is Bryan et al. (2021), who in the Philippines show that poor households randomly selected to participate in an Evangelical Protestant education program have higher religiosity and income, the latter of which the authors attribute to an increase in ``grit.’’ We plan to diverge from this previous work by learning the economic effects of an intensive but short-term program related to NPC messaging in an African setting. Butinda et al. (2023) highlight how economists have largely underestimated the impact of beliefs in influencing economic development in Africa. This setting and design allows us to uncover increasingly relevant and generalizable evidence into the developmental implications of the fastest growing religious doctrine across the continent. In our proposed project, we plan to organize intensive religious workshops to occur over two-days within informal settlements of Kisumu, Kenya. These workshops will serve as the intervention exposure, providing different forms of religious messaging to attendees randomly assigned to attend that workshops. We expect these workshops to be two days long to generate significant enough exposure to generate potential differences in behavior, but not so long as to be too inconvenient to the attendees. Additional details can be found in our pre-analysis plan. |
| Field Primary Outcomes (End Points) | Before Survey responses to 1) religious attitudes and beliefs, 2) feelings of power and control, 3) grit 4) self-control 5) alcohol use in past week; results of choice experiment described below (i.e. amount given to charity, to pastor, to spouse; amount "saved"; amount given to entreprenuership fund.) | After Religion and church attendance; Religious attitudes and beliefs; Feelings of power and control; Grit; Self-Control; Results from choice experiment |
| Field Primary Outcomes (Explanation) | Before To construct the religious indices, we will follow Bryan, Choi, and Karlan (2021) and first standardize the responses to each question such that the control group has unit variance and zero mean: from each index component (i.e., survey question) we will subtract the control mean and divide by the standard deviation of those in the control group. We will then sum each of these standardized components, then standardize this summation again in reference to the control group. This leads to the creation of four indices: Intrinsic (depth and personal connection to their faith), Extrinsic (use of religion to advance their social goals), General (questions that do not fall into either the intrinsic or extrinsic category), and Fundamentalism (questions adapted from Altemeyer and Hunsberger (2004)). | After Details in pre-analysis plan. |
| Field Experimental Design (Public) | Before Of the 1400 randomly selected individuals in this project, 600 will be a control group and 800 will be in the treatment, which will be split evenly between two different treatment arms: participants in one treatment group will participate in a two-day long workshop with an NPC pastor who will focus on tenants of the prosperity gospel, while the second treatment group will attend a workshop with an establishment church speaker (e.g., Roman Catholic) for two days. The participant will not know beforehand which group they have been assigned. The invitation to the workshops will also detail to the potential participant that a small monetary incentive will be provided for participation, which, as described below, will be used to help determine the economic outcomes. Following the intervention, enumerators will conduct surveys and experimental games with the treatment and control individuals, which will take place within one week of the intervention to mitigate outside influences affecting the results. When the enumerator visits the household, they will introduce the experimental game by providing part of the incentive compensation to the participant (1 USD) which will be for a practice game, and the remainder of the compensation (7 USD) for the main experimental game. For the primary experimental game, the enumerator will present eight scenarios related to economic behavior and decision-making in a random order, stressing that only one would be randomly chosen as binding. Following this choice experiment, the enumerator will conduct a survey with the participant, asking demographic and household questions, questions related to time use and employment, questions on expenditures, and questions on alcohol consumption (alcoholism is a significant public health issue in this area). There will also be a detailed module in the survey related to religious practices and beliefs. Given the results of the choice experiment and pre- and post-workshop surveys, we will test the hypothesis that attendance at a workshop featuring an NPC preacher focused on the prosperity gospel has meaningful effects on participant behavior and beliefs. | After Of the 1400 randomly selected individuals in this project, 600 will be a control group and 800 will be in the treatment, which will be split evenly between two different treatment arms: participants in one treatment group will participate in a two-day long workshop with an NPC pastor who will focus on tenants of the prosperity gospel, while the second treatment group will attend a workshop with an establishment church speaker (e.g., Roman Catholic) for two days. The invitation to the workshops will also detail to the potential participant that a small monetary incentive will be provided for participation, which, as described below, will be used to help determine the economic outcomes. Following the intervention, enumerators will conduct surveys and experimental games with the treatment and control individuals, which will take place within one week of the intervention to mitigate outside influences affecting the results. When the enumerator visits the household, they will introduce the experimental game by providing part of the incentive compensation to the participant (1 USD) which will be for a practice game, and the remainder of the compensation (7 USD) for the main experimental game. For the primary experimental game, the enumerator will present eight scenarios related to economic behavior and decision-making in a random order, stressing that only one would be randomly chosen as binding. Following this choice experiment, the enumerator will conduct a survey with the participant, asking demographic and household questions, questions related to time use and employment, questions on expenditures, and questions on alcohol consumption (alcoholism is a significant public health issue in this area). There will also be a detailed module in the survey related to religious practices and beliefs. Given the results of the choice experiment and pre- and post-workshop surveys, we will test the hypothesis that attendance at a workshop featuring an NPC preacher focused on the prosperity gospel has meaningful effects on participant behavior and beliefs. |
| Field Randomization Method | Before Households selected by a computer placing random points onto a map of localities. Churches selected by creating a random ranking of all Pentecostal churches and a random ranking of all Anglican/Catholic churches in each locality. We will choose the top four Penetecostal churches from that list from each locality, and the top Anglican/Catholic church from each locality to invite to host workshops. | After Households selected by a computer placing random points onto a map of localities. Churches selected by creating a random ranking of all Pentecostal churches and a random ranking of all Anglican/Catholic churches in each locality. We will choose the top four Pentecostal churches from that list from each locality, and the top Anglican/Catholic church from each locality to invite to host workshops. Further details in pre-analysis plan. |
| Field Public analysis plan | Before No | After Yes |
| Field Secondary Outcomes (End Points) | Before | After Labor earnings; business earnings; expenditures and gifts; Alcohol use and spending; Time use |
| Field Secondary Outcomes (Explanation) | Before | After Details in pre-analysis plan. |
| Field | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Field Document | Before |
After
Pre_Analysis_Plan__Aspirations__Beliefs__and_Behavior.pdf
MD5:
19ce54894b7388be037e5145f9400e53
SHA1:
c8193df3f032bd1458aee15f38d8632345ae6b7b
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