Can Temporary Affirmative Action Improve Representation?

Last registered on April 25, 2024

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Can Temporary Affirmative Action Improve Representation?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013391
Initial registration date
April 16, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 25, 2024, 11:14 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Richmond

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-05-01
End date
2024-08-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
If employers hold biased beliefs about a particular group, they may be less likely to hire workers from this group, preventing them from learning and correcting their beliefs. This paper explores whether temporary affirmative action can correct biased beliefs and in turn improve representation even after the policy is lifted. I elicit employer hiring decisions and beliefs about potential employee performance in two between-subject experimental treatments: a control treatment without affirmative action and a temporary affirmative action treatment.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Gupta, Neeraja. 2024. "Can Temporary Affirmative Action Improve Representation?." AEA RCT Registry. April 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13391-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Intervention Start Date
2024-05-01
Intervention End Date
2024-08-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The first set of hypothesis are for the overall sample:
H1: Temporary affirmative action for women improves representation of women even after affirmative action is lifted.
H2: Temporary affirmative action for women reduces the bias in beliefs about performance of women relative to men.
H3: Beliefs about performance help explain the lasting improvement in representation of women due to a temporary affirmative action policy.

I also expect to find heterogenous effects where among the employers who are less biased in their beliefs and less likely to discriminate against women as such, quotas will not be binding and their exposure to women workers not limited. As a result, we can expect to see no differential impact of the temporary affirmative action treatment on changes in beliefs. On the other hand, among the employers who are more biased in their beliefs and more likely to discriminate against women as such, we expect to find a significant reduction in gender bias in beliefs as well as a lasting improvement in representation of women due to the temporary affirmative action treatment. The classification of employers into the two subgroups of less vs. more like to be biased and discriminate against women will be carried out exactly as described in the design section.

All results in overall sample as well as heterogenous effects are expected to become stronger by excluding employers who are likely to disregard information given to them from the feedback as as well as likely to be inattentive as identified by the final stage of the experiment.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Participants will indicate whether or not they want to hire a candidate. This response will be aggregated across all participants as a likelihood of hiring for various participant characteristics. These likelihoods will be compared for male and female candidates across the two treatments.
For beliefs, a scale of 0 to 100 will be used to elicit an employer participant's belief on whether or not they expect a candidate to succeed in the underlying real effort task where success is defined as getting a score of 8 or above (out of 10). This measure of beliefs will be used for analysis as such and compared for male vs, female candidates across the two treatments.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
In addition to indicating whether or not employers will like to hire a candidate, they will be asked to indicate their preference ordering for hiring. Of key interest here is to examine if temporary affirmative action treatment can induce effects powerful enough for women to become the first choice for hiring by employers. We expect to find heterogenous effects in beliefs as well as explanatory effect of beliefs on hiring choices for this outcome variable as well.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Participants in the first experiment serve as workers and answer trivia questions from a number of male-type trivia categories. Experiment 2 elicits beliefs on gender difference in performance of participants in the previous experiment. Of key interest here is finding a trivia category where evaluators hold biased beliefs on the gender gap in performance. The data collection for the first two experiment is already complete.
The first two experiments identify sports as the trivia category where there are no gender differences in average performance but where men are believed to outperform women. Workers' performance in the sports trivia quiz becomes the foundation for employer beliefs and hiring decisions which will nor be captured in the third and main experiment of this study.

Participants in the employer experiment will be presented with four randomly selected resumes of a gender-balanced set of workers from experiment 1. Employers’ beliefs will be elicited about expected performance of all presented worker resumes on the sport trivia quiz. They will then be asked to hire two out of this group of four workers. Finally, employers will get feedback about actual performance of both of their hired employees. Employers will proceed with these belief elicitations and hiring decisions for six rounds with different workers in each round, allowing us to see how employer beliefs and hiring decisions update based on feedback. The experiment has two between-subject treatments: a control treatment in which there will be no restrictions on who the employers can hire; and a temporary affirmative action treatment. In the temporary affirmative action treatment, the first three rounds will have a quota policy for women wherein at least one of the two hired employees must be a woman, and this policy is subsequently removed in the last three rounds.

At the end of the round 6 hiring decision stage, employers will enter a final decision stage. Here they will be offered a chance to get costless information on workers’ performance and to potentially revise hiring choices for round 6. This final stage is used to identify employers who do not opt for this costless information for any worker. Such employers are classified as being likely to disregard information about employee performance and this classification allows us to explore heterogeneous effects on hiring and beliefs. It also allows for potential reduction in noise in the data as participants who do not demand the costless information are also likely to be less attentive.

To identify participants more vs. less likely to be biased in their beliefs and discriminate against women in hiring, I will first use data from the control treatment to estimate a logit regression where dependent variable will be an indicator which takes value 1 if two men are hired in round 1, and explanatory variable will be the gender difference in beliefs about performance of workers in round 1. Using this estimation, I will then predict the probability of hiring two men for the control group of employers and determine a cutoff point based on the top 25\% of employers most likely to hire two men in round. This cutoff will then then be used to classify two subgroups within the control group of employers. To achieve a comparable classification for employers in the temporary affirmative action treatment, I will use the previously estimated coefficients to predict a probability of hiring two men in round 1. Finally, I will classify the two subgroups within the temporary affirmative action treatment group of employers based on the predicted probability of hiring two men in round 1 around this cutoff point. I will do sensitivity analysis to ensure that any results based on this classification of subgroups is not sensitive to a particular cutoff point.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
The experiment will be programmed using Qualtrics and the randomizer in Qualtrics will be used to randomize subjects into the two treatments
Randomization Unit
Individual level
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1000
Sample size: planned number of observations
1000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
500 each to be recruited for the two treatments
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Can Temporary Affirmative Action Improve Representation?
IRB Approval Date
2024-04-16
IRB Approval Number
URIRB240416