The effect of negative emotions and perceived foreign threats on Americans' conspiracy belief about international politics

Last registered on April 25, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The effect of negative emotions and perceived foreign threats on Americans' conspiracy belief about international politics
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013400
Initial registration date
April 17, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 25, 2024, 11:49 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region
IL

Primary Investigator

Name
Yueqi Lin
Affiliation
UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Andrew Proctor
PI Affiliation
The University of Chicago
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Eric Oliver
PI Affiliation
The University of Chicago
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Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2024-04-17
End date
2024-04-19
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
international politics, conspiratorial statement, negative emotions, threat, party identification, ideology, education level
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Traditional explanations of Americans’ conspiracy beliefs by motivated reasoning like partisanship and ideology may mask other stronger motives in their conspiratorial beliefs about international politics. I navigate my research to the effect of negative emotions and perceived foreign threats on Americans' conspiracy beliefs about international relations, hypothesizing that the negative emotions and foreign threats perceived by Americans are significant motivators for their beliefs in conspiracy theories related to global affairs. The prior attitude held towards specific countries leads respondents to be more inclined to believe in conspiratorial statements associated with those countries. This research initially conducted an observational study using the American National Election Survey (ANES) 2020 Time Series to examine the correlation between self-reported emotions, attitudes about international politics, and conspiracy theory beliefs. Then, the observational results were used to guide the design of an original survey experiment to test causality. This research demonstrates how the perception of negative emotions and foreign threats shape Americans' conspiracy beliefs in international politics.


External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Lin, Yueqi, Eric Oliver and Andrew Proctor. 2024. "The effect of negative emotions and perceived foreign threats on Americans' conspiracy belief about international politics." AEA RCT Registry. April 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13400-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention 1: Respondents assigned to the condition of negative emotions will be asked to write answers to two prompts.
"Please tell us about a recent experience that made you feel anxious."
"Please tell us about a recent experience that made you feel angry."
Intervention 2: Respondents assigned to the condition of foreign threat will be asked to read a news screenshot and then answer the question, "Have you ever seen this news story？". The news screenshot is fictional, although it draws on the real style of Bloomberg News online.
Intervention Start Date
2024-04-17
Intervention End Date
2024-04-19

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The outcome variables include respondents' rating on 6 conspiratorial statements about international politics.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The outcome “Americans' conspiracy beliefs about international politics” as an index will be constructed by these main variables.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This survey will recruit American adults on Prolific to complete a four-part questionnaire created via Qualtrics, randomly assigning respondents to three groups.
1. Pre-treatment evaluation
2. Randomly assign respondents to the control/treatment1/treatment2 group
3. Rate agreement on Conspiratorial statements
4. Post-treatment questions (Manipulation check).
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by Qualtrics
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
300 American adults
Sample size: planned number of observations
300 American adults
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
100 American adults control, 100 American adults by negative emotions treatment, 100 American adults by foreign threats treatment
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Social and Behavioral Sciences Institutional Review Board, The University of Chicago
IRB Approval Date
2024-04-11
IRB Approval Number
IRB24-0554
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials