Evaluating the employment effects of a package of active labor market interventions in Türkiye

Last registered on July 08, 2024

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Evaluating the employment effects of a package of active labor market interventions in Türkiye
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013500
Initial registration date
July 02, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 08, 2024, 1:10 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
World Bank

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
World Bank

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-08-01
End date
2026-03-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The proposed evaluation aims to identify and estimate the causal impacts of a package (program) of active labor market interventions in Türkiye. The evaluation will be based on a randomized controlled trial. The overall evaluation sample will comprise 2,700 individuals, with 1,350 individuals randomly assigned to the treatment group and 1,350 individuals to the control group.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Nas Ozen, Efsan and Dhushyanth Raju. 2024. "Evaluating the employment effects of a package of active labor market interventions in Türkiye." AEA RCT Registry. July 08. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13500-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The proposed evaluation aims to identify and estimate the causal impacts of a package (program) of active labor market interventions in Türkiye
Intervention (Hidden)
The proposed evaluation aims to identify and estimate the causal impacts of a package (program) of active labor market interventions in Türkiye, under the Support for Transition to Labor Market project. Among officials and stakeholders familiar with the project, it is commonly referred to by its Turkish acronym, ISDEP 2.

ISDEP 2, which became effective in August 2022, is financed by the European Commission through a grant under the European Union Facility for Refugees in Türkiye and is administered by the World Bank. The project aims to: (1) improve the employability of Syrians under Temporary Protection (referred to as Syrian refugees), International Protection Status Holders and Applicants (referred to as refugees of other nationalities), and Turkish citizens; and (2) facilitate access to registered (or formal) employment. ISDEP 2 is being implemented in eight (out of 81) provinces in the country, namely Adana, İstanbul, Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa, İzmir, Bursa, Kocaeli, and Konya.

The implementing agencies of ISDEP 2 are the Turkish Ministry of Labor and Social Security, the Turkish Employment Agency (İŞKUR), and the Turkish Red Crescent (TRC). The latter two agencies are responsible for the program of interventions subject to impact evaluation. TRC, a humanitarian organization, provides aid and support to vulnerable populations in Türkiye and around the world. Its services include disaster response, emergency relief, healthcare, social support, education, and community resilience. Additionally, TRC addresses the needs of refugees and internally displaced persons by offering shelter, food aid, healthcare services, psychosocial support, and assistance with integration into host communities. İŞKUR, a government agency operating under the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, facilitates employment and workforce development in Türkiye by providing services such as job placement, vocational training, unemployment benefits, and labor market information.

Refugees from other countries residing in Türkiye, particularly Syrian refugees, are a key target beneficiary group in ISDEP 2. TRC administers a subset of program interventions to directly tackle the challenges refugees face in securing formal jobs. TRC delivers its program interventions under ISDEP 2 through nine community centers located in the eight project provinces.

For individuals entering the program through TRC, the full possible chain of primary interventions includes job orientation consultation services (referred to as livelihood counseling services), Turkish language training, and job readiness training, all delivered by TRC. For those who receive livelihood counseling and express interest in continuing with the program, TRC conducts a profiling exercise using a standardized questionnaire and computer-aided personal interviews (CAPI), an important step in administrative data collection. After TRC provides its interventions, it refers individuals to İŞKUR for job information and intermediation consultation services (referred to as job and vocational counseling services), and placement in on-the-job training programs at formal private enterprises, referred to as applied training programs (ATPs). During the ATP, İŞKUR covers the trainee’s pay and full short-term occupational health and safety and general health insurance premium contributions. The enterprise is then expected to formally employ, on its own payroll, at least 20 percent of the trainees within a specified period following its ATPs.

As of March 31, 2024, TRC had offered livelihood counseling services to approximately 14,700 individuals, profiled 11,500 individuals, delivered or was in the process of delivering Turkish language training to 1,500 individuals, provided job readiness training to 5,200 individuals, and referred 4,800 individuals to İŞKUR. As of April 30, 2024, İŞKUR had offered job counseling services to approximately 1,700 individuals, with 1,600 having been placed in ATPs. Of the 11,500 who were profiled, 48 percent were women, 85 percent were Syrian refugees, 13 percent were other refugees, and 31 percent were ESSN program beneficiaries.
Intervention Start Date
2024-09-01
Intervention End Date
2025-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Primary outcomes comprise overall employment status, wage employment status, formal employment status, labor earnings, and hours worked.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary outcomes include job satisfaction, working conditions, psychological well-being, and subjective well-being and expectations.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The evaluation will be based on a randomized controlled trial. The overall evaluation sample will comprise 2,700 individuals, with 1,350 individuals randomly assigned to the treatment group and 1,350 individuals to the control group.
Experimental Design Details
The proposed evaluation is based on a randomized controlled trial. The overall evaluation sample will comprise 2,700 individuals, with 1,350 individuals randomly assigned to the treatment group and 1,350 individuals assigned to the control group. The sample size was determined by balancing technical considerations (i.e., statistical power calculations and potential attrition by endline measurement) with political and practical feasibility considerations. Individuals for the evaluation will be identified from those who go through TRC’s profiling stage. Those assigned to the treatment group will proceed to the next intervention in the program chain, as relevant to the individual.

Following TRC’s request, to ensure the acceptability of the design, the randomization will be blocked by community center and by biweekly (every two weeks) profiled flow of individuals. Blocking by biweekly profiled flow allows for the incremental flow of individuals into treatment, thus avoiding a hiatus in the provision of program services that would occur if the randomization were conducted only after the profiled flow had reached 2,700 individuals.

Data for the evaluation of impacts are expected to come from three sources: (1) baseline measurement through July and August 2024, obtained through administrative data from the CAPI-based profiling of individuals conducted by TRC at community centers, which includes the application of a special supplemental questionnaire; (2) repeated interim measurements between October 2024 and June 2025, conducted via periodic surveys by TRC using computer-aided telephone interviewing (CATI); and (3) endline measurement by September 2025, conducted through a CAPI-based survey in the field by an independent firm contracted by TRC.

The data collection activities will capture relevant employment outcomes as well as other outcomes and covariates measured at the level of the evaluation individual, their household, and specific other household members. Standard data protection and human subjects research protections will be adhered to by the parties involved in the collection, management, and analysis of the data, namely TRC and the World Bank.

The World Bank will conduct the evaluation, which entails a range of responsibilities from evaluation design and questionnaire development to data analysis and report preparation. The evaluation will be carried out in close coordination with the implementing agencies of ISDEP 2. Of particular importance, the World Bank will depend on TRC for program implementation according to the randomization design and for the collection, processing, and submission of data for the evaluation. In this regard, the World Bank will provide oversight and support for quality assurance.
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
NA
Sample size: planned number of observations
2700 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
NA
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Probability of overall employment: 4 percentage points
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials