Preregistration of the project “Perceived legitimacy of court decisions concerning climate change - a survey and field experimental study"

Last registered on October 28, 2024

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Preregistration of the project “Perceived legitimacy of court decisions concerning climate change - a survey and field experimental study"
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013535
Initial registration date
April 30, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 13, 2024, 12:51 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
October 28, 2024, 11:52 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University Bern/ETH Zürich

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Bern

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-05-03
End date
2025-12-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
On April 9th, 2024, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) delivered a bold and historical judgment in the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”). This case was brought before the ECtHR by four women and a Swiss association, Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz, that alleged that the Swiss authorities were “not taking sufficient action to mitigate the effects of climate change” and that global warming has consequences on their living conditions and health (European Court of Human Rights 2024). The ECtHR found that the “Convention encompasses a right to effective protection by the State authorities from the serious adverse effects of climate change on lives, health, well-being and quality of life” and that “the Swiss Confederation had failed to comply with its duties under the Convention concerning climate change” (European Court of Human Rights 2024). Since then, the case has been heavily debated in the Swiss press and abroad, and different politicians have expressed concerns about its impact and even the legitimacy of this case (Blattner 2024). For example, the rightwing Swiss People’s Party (Schweizerische Volkspartei, SVP) released a statement declaring the ruling “unacceptable” and calling for Switzerland to withdraw from the Council of Europe (Schweizerische Volkspartei 2024).

Previous research suggests that citizens are sensitive to international court rulings. For example, Pelc (2013) found that US citizens are concerned about their country's non-compliance with international trade law. When a trade partner accuses the United States of not complying with the rules of the World Trade Organization, people look for information online.

The perception of the legitimacy of international organizations is also important. International relations scholars have been studying the effect of legitimacy on international law and international organizations (IOs). For example, recent research has focused on IOs self-legitimization practices for twenty-eight years (Schmidtke and Lenz 2023; Schmidtke et al. 2023). Dingwerth et al. (2019) show an increase in the politicization of international organizations' legitimacy and how this pushes IOs to legitimize themselves more toward the citizens of their member states. Schlipphak, Meiners, and Kiratli (2022) implemented a survey experiment on public legitimacy beliefs on the WHO during the COVID-19 crisis and showed that international crisis make IOs more salient that are mandated to solve the respective crisis. Dellmuth and Tallberg (2021) looked at the effects of elite communication on citizen perceptions of IO’s legitimacy and found that negative messages are more effective than positive ones in altering citizens’ perceptions.

Other research has shown how legitimacy can come from the norms and rules that support IOs and how normative legitimacy is important to create and maintain compliance (Hurd, 2019; Reus-Smit, 2007; Tallberg & Zürn, 2019). However, much of this research focuses only on compliance from a state perspective.

In this paper we focus on sociological approaches to legitimacy that emphasize people's belief towards an arrangement (Roozendaal and Deugd 2022, 91). Sociological approaches to legitimacy – sometimes called descriptive legitimacy or empirical legitimacy – are rooted in subjects' perceptions which “define the degree of acceptance of a norm” (Reid, 2020, p. 91). Following Suchman (1995, 574), we define legitimacy as “a generalized perception or assumption that the actions of an entity are desirable, proper, appropriate within some socially constructed system of norms, values, beliefs, and definitions”. Legitimacy is, therefore, a social process that is dependent on social perception and recognition (Reus-Smit 2007).

Little research has focused on the impact citizens' perceptions have on compliance with rulings from international courts. In addition, we know little about how additional information about court decisions can affect citizen’s legitimacy perceptions, support for decision compliance, policy support, and voting behavior. We thus seek to address this research gap with an experimental design, in which we randomly provide information about the ECtHR court decision in the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) to half of the respondents in our sample and then compare responses to a control group that did not receive this information. We run a field- and survey-experiment with a representative sample of Swiss citizens and permanent residents (+18) years in the French and German speaking part of Switzerland. The sample is provided by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. We conduct two survey waves. The first wave is conducted in early May 2024 just before the direct democratic vote on renewable energies on the 9th of June 2024 (the referendum on the so-called Electricity law that aims to accelerate the installation of renewable energy, especially open-space solar PV and wind plants in Switzerland).

Specifically, we seek to answer the following research questions with our experiment:

RQ1: How does information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affect the perceived legitimacy of the decision made by the ECtHR?

RQ2: How does information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affect the perceived fairness of the decision made by the ECtHR?

RQ3: How does information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affect the perceived need to alter the level of Swiss climate policy ambition?

RQ4: How does information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affect the support for the Swiss government to comply with the decision made by the ECtHR?

RQ5: How does information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affect the support for different climate mitigation policies?

RQ6: How does information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affect the intended and revealed voting for different climate mitigation policies?

Related to the mediation effects of information provision:

RQ7: To what extent is the effect of information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) on compliance support, climate policy ambition, climate policy support, intended and revealed voting behavior mediated by changes in perceived legitimacy and perceived fairness of the court decision?

Related to the moderation effects of information provision:

RQ8: To what extent is the effect of information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) on perceived decision legitimacy, perceived decision fairness, compliance support, climate policy ambition, climate policy support, intended and revealed voting behavior moderated by individuals trust into courts, prior court legitimacy perceptions, and political ideology?

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Fesenfeld, Lukas and Laurie Durel. 2024. "Preregistration of the project “Perceived legitimacy of court decisions concerning climate change - a survey and field experimental study"." AEA RCT Registry. October 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13535-1.1
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Building on the existing literature, we derive the following hypotheses:

H1: Information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affects the perceived legitimacy of the decision made by the ECtHR.

H2: Information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affects the perceived fairness of the decision made by the ECtHR.

H3: Information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affects the perceived need to alter the level of Swiss climate policy ambition.

H4: Information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affects the support for the Swiss government to comply with the decision made by the ECtHR.

H5: Information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affects the support for different climate mitigation policies.

H6: Information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) affects the intended and revealed voting for different climate mitigation policies.

H7: The effect of information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) on compliance support, climate policy ambition, climate policy support, intended and revealed voting behavior is mediated by changes in perceived legitimacy and perceived fairness of the court decision.

H8: The effect of information provision about the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”) on perceived decision legitimacy, perceived decision fairness, compliance support, climate policy ambition, climate policy support, intended and revealed voting behaviors moderated by individuals trust into courts, prior court legitimacy perceptions, and political ideology.

To test these hypotheses, we conduct a randomized experiment. During the first survey wave, half of the participants will be randomly assigned to the control and the other half to the treatment group. The control group will get some information about the the case of KlimaSeniorinnen and Others v. Switzerland (“Klimaseniorinnen”), building on the information provided on the official website of the ECHR: https://www.echr.coe.int/w/grand-chamber-rulings-in-the-climate-change-cases

Specifically, respondents in the treatment group receive the following information:

On 9 April 2024, the European Court of Human Rights delivered a judgment in the case of “Climate Seniors v. Switzerland (Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland)”: The Court concluded that the Swiss Confederation had failed to fulfill its obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights concerning climate change.

This case concerned a complaint by four women and a Swiss association, Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz, whose members are concerned about the consequences of climate change on their living conditions and health. They consider that the Swiss authorities are not taking sufficient action to mitigate the effects of climate change. The Court found that the Convention encompasses a right to effective protection by the State authorities from the serious adverse effects of climate change on lives, health, well-being and quality of life. The Court held that there had been a violation of the right to respect for private and family life of the Convention.

No appeal can be made against this judgment which is legally binding on Switzerland. However, the Court did not specify any concrete climate protection measures that Switzerland must now take. This decision is the responsibility of the Federal Council, Parliament and, ultimately, the Swiss people.

A concrete way to strengthen climate protection is to develop renewable energies (e.g. solar, wind, hydropower). Swiss voters will be able to decide on faster development of renewable energies when they vote on the electricity law on June 9, 2024.

Both the control and the treatment group are then asked several questions regarding their general attitude towards the case, their perceived legitimacy and fairness of the decision made by the ECtHR as well as their support for Swiss governmental compliance with the court decision, and climate policy support and respective voting behaviors.

Due to randomization, the only systematic difference between the control and the treatment group should be the treatment, which allows estimating a causal effect of the treatment on the dependent variables, if the randomization works as intended and the sample is generally large enough (Stock and Watson 2020).
Intervention Start Date
2024-05-03
Intervention End Date
2024-05-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
In the following, we describe the outcome variables that have to be answered by all survey respondents (Survey wave 1 and 2):

If they can describe their opinion on the case “Climate Seniors against Switzerland” in one or two sentences? (Open box) The survey platform Qualtrics, on which we programmed our surveys, provides an internal natural language processing based sentiment analysis of the open text responses, i.e., sentiment label; sentiment score, sentiment polarity as designed by Qualtrics)

How strongly they support or oppose the ruling of the European Court of Human Rights of April 9, 2024 in the case “Climate Seniors v. Switzerland”

How fair or unfair they consider the ruling of the European Court of Human Rights of 9 April 2024 in the case "Climate Seniors v. Switzerland" to be towards Switzerland

How appropriate or inappropriate they think it is for the European Court of Human Rights to rule on Switzerland’s climate policy

If respondents think the Swiss government should implement a more ambitious climate protection policy based on the ruling of the European Court of Human Rights of April 9, 2024 in the case "Climate Seniors v. Switzerland"

Their opinion on the level of ambitiousness of current Swiss climate protection policy considering the court decision.

Their support for specific climate and energy policies, namely:

- A CO2 tax to reduce Switzerland’s greenhouse gas emissions

- Wind power plant («wind turbines») development in the Swiss Mittellands

- Measures to reduce meat consumption, e.g. increase the VAT on meat products

- Development of solar systems in open spaces (e.g. meadows, fields, etc.).


Participation in the national referendum on the Electricity Act (Survey wave 1, before vote)
In the survey, respondents will be asked about their intentions to participate in the national referendum on the Electricity Act. The following question is asked both the treatment and the control group:
How likely they are to take part in the vote on June 9, 2024 (“I will definitely participate”, “I'm not quite sure yet, but I'll probably take part.”, “I usually vote, but probably not this time.”, “I will not participate.”, “I have already voted by post.”, “I am not allowed to vote”)

If respondents participate or plan to participate, the following question is asked:
If they want to adopt the Federal Act on a Secure Electricity Supply from Renewable Energies, or Electricity Act for short, in the vote (“Yes”, “I have not decided yet”, “No”, “don’t know / no answer”)
If respondents do not want to participate or do not plan to participate, the following question is asked:
What they think they would vote if they were to take part in the vote (“Yes”, “I have not decided yet”, “No”, “don’t know / no answer”)
If respondents already participated by post:
How they voted on the Federal Act on a Secure Electricity Supply from Renewable Energies, or Electricity Act for short (“Yes”, “No”, “inserted empty”, “don’t know / no answer)

Participation in the national referendum on the Electricity Act (Survey wave 2, after vote)
If they took part in the vote on June 9, 2024 (“I voted”, “I did not vote”, “I was not allowed to vote”)
How they voted on the Federal Act on a Secure Electricity Supply from Renewable Energies, or Electricity Act for short (“Yes”, “No”, “inserted empty”, “don’t know / no answer)



Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The respondents in our two survey waves are drawn from the population register of the Federal Statistical Office (BfS) comprising Swiss residents. The BfS population register mirrors, besides random error and uneven response rates, the Swiss resident population. We used stratified random sampling with the strata language region (i.e. German or French speaking parts of Switzerland), gender (i.e. male or female), and urbanization level (i.e., urban, semi-urban, rural). In total, we invited around 16’000 Swiss residents in the French and German speaking part of Switzerland above the age of 18 years via letter (plus one reminder) to participate in the survey. We expect a response rate between 25-30 percent. As part of the first survey wave half of the respondents will be randomly assigned to the treatment group and the other half of respondents to the control group. Respondents who filled out the first survey wave are invited around 6 weeks later to participate in a short follow-up survey. For the second survey wave, we also invite people via email if they provided their email address in the first survey.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
For randomization, we use the randomizer feature in Qualtrics, the online survey software used to design the survey and collect the data. Balance checks will be conducted to test that randomization worked.
Randomization Unit
Survey/field experiment: The unit of randomization will be individual respondents.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
3000-4000 Swiss residents above the age of 18 years living in the French- and German-speaking parts of Switzerland, depending on the final response rate, the sampling design is not clustered
Sample size: planned number of observations
3000-4000 Swiss residents above the age of 18 years living in the French- and German-speaking parts of Switzerland, depending on the final response rate
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Control group: Half of respondents, final number depends on response rate to survey invitation. We expect around 1500-2000 respondents in the control group during the first survey wave, and around 750-1000 respondents in the second survey wave (expected response rate in second wave = 50% of first wave)

Treatment group (i.e., information about court decision): Half of respondents, final number depends on response rate to survey invitation. We expect around 1500-2000 respondents in the control group during the first survey wave, and around 750-1000 respondents in the second survey wave (expected response rate in second wave = 50% of first wave)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
ETH Zurich Ethics Commission
IRB Approval Date
2024-04-24
IRB Approval Number
EK-2024-N-84
Analysis Plan

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