Eliciting Stock Market Expectations

Last registered on June 24, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Eliciting Stock Market Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013769
Initial registration date
June 05, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 24, 2024, 12:15 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
David Zimmerman
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Brian Scholl
PI Affiliation
SEC
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Katherine Carman
PI Affiliation
SEC
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Jonathan Cook
PI Affiliation
SEC
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-06-06
End date
2025-07-01
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Expectations, Household Finance
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Abstract: Economic and financial models predict that expected returns in the stock market will influence investment decisions. Those who expect that there will be low returns should allocate less money to equities and put more money in guaranteed return investments. Economists and psychologists have used many different methods to elicit expectations about the distribution of future economic outcomes, such as inflation and stock market returns. In this research we seek to assess which methods of eliciting expectations best reflect participants’ investment choices.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Carman, Katherine et al. 2024. "Eliciting Stock Market Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. June 24. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13769-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We will randomize the elicitation method for assessing stock market expectations and elicit choices.
Intervention (Hidden)
Respondents will be asked to make three investment allocation decisions. Respondents will then be randomized into one of ten methods of eliciting stock market expectations. The treatment groups use different methods of asking about expectations, including a text-based elicitation of expectations, a graphical elicitation, a method that elicits different percentiles in the distribution, and a direct elicitation method. Respondents are then asked a series of questions. More details are provided in the analysis plan.
Intervention Start Date
2024-06-06
Intervention End Date
2024-06-18

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
We will compare actual allocations to predicted allocations based on responses to the expectations elicitations questions. The primary outcomes will be the distance between the actual and predicted allocations to the equity option in dollars.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Completion time, subjective satisfaction with survey, attrition, confidence in responses, non-usable responses: individuals for whom we cannot fit a distribution using the distribution fit method, item non-response
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Respondents will be randomly assigned to one of ten conditions.
Experimental Design Details
See additional detail in the analysis plan.
Randomization Method
Block randomization in Qualtrics
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Same as the number of observations.
Sample size: planned number of observations
We will invite 7,489 people from a nationally representative sample of adults.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Sample size will be evenly assigned across the 10 treatments.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
NORC Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2024-06-03
IRB Approval Number
IRB00000967
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials