Sequence effects in taxi driver decision making

Last registered on October 31, 2024
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Sequence effects in taxi driver decision making
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013808
Initial registration date
June 30, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 01, 2024, 1:15 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
October 31, 2024, 10:34 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Singapore
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Ivan Png
Affiliation
National University of Singapore
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Song Wang
PI Affiliation
National University of Singapore
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-08-19
End date
2025-06-30
Keywords
Behavior, Firms & Productivity, Labor
Additional Keywords
Sequence effects; gambler's fallacy; Productivity
JEL code(s)
D8, D9, R4
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This experiment aims to investigate sequence effects in the context of taxi driving. Specifically, it examines how the outcome of a previous booking (whether it was completed or canceled) influences taxi drivers’ beliefs about the likelihood of the next booking being canceled and their bidding on the next booking.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Png, Ivan and Song Wang. 2024. "Sequence effects in taxi driver decision making." AEA RCT Registry. October 31. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13808-3.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
[Hidden: Will disclose on completion of study]
Intervention Start Date
2024-08-19
Intervention End Date
2025-06-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
(1) Belief that next booking would be cancelled.
Subjects will be asked to estimate the likelihood that the next booking will be cancelled, using a 5-point Likert scale ranging from "much less likely than usual" to "much more likely than usual."
(2) Bidding.
Subjects will be asked to bid on the next booking from multiple choices based on the options in the taxi company booking system: 2 minutes, 4 minutes, 6 minutes, 8 minutes, or "do not bid."
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
[Hidden: Will disclose on completion of study]
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization by online Qualtrics system.
Randomization Unit
Individual driver.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Not clustered.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Target sample size: 2641 drivers. However, due to administrative constraints in scheduling surveyors and recruiting taxi drivers, we plan to stop at the collection of 500 responses or 1 March 2025, which ever is earlier.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Each subject will have an equal probability (25%) of being assigned to one of four conditions:
(a) Low fare, first booking cancelled.
(b) Low fare, first booking completed.
(c) High fare, first booking cancelled.
(d) High fare, first booking completed.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
We focus on Hypothesis 1 for our power calculation. Using G*Power, we conducted a power analysis for a Poisson regression of the stated belief on the cancellation condition posed to drivers, with fixed effects for survey administration (time of the day, surveyor). Assuming a conventional Type I error rate (α = 0.05) and a power of 0.80 (1 - β = 0.80), the analysis indicated that a sample size of 2641 participants is required.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
National University of Singapore Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2024-01-24
IRB Approval Number
LS-17-090E
Analysis Plan