Threats, trust and emotional mediation: the role of individual heterogeneity

The aim of this project is to study the causal relationship between exposure to threats and people's confidence and political attitude, exploring the mediating role of emotion. To do this, respondents watch videos at random, some exposed to videos presenting threats (related to terrorism, war or climate shocks) and others to a neutral video (placebo). Threats are random and can therefore causally generate a change in outcomes, associated with specific emotional responses (increased fear, anger or disgust, for instance) as recently shown in interdisciplinary research (Ric et al, 2023). The present research suggests the possibility of a negative indirect effect of threats on trust (by generating negative emotions that reduce trust) and a positive direct effect (reinforced solidarity). The impact of threat-driven changes in trust on political orientations (e.g. support to specific parties or simply turnout) can also be studied. Trust itself can be considered as a secondary emotion and has been shown to be an important factor for political support (e.g., Algan et al., 2021), which we try here to assess in a particularly critical period, i.e. just before an election where extreme parties are on the verge of taking power in France. This allows us to see how threats that could materialize during a politically precarious time can impact political outcomes or key attitudes. In this context, we will also explore the impact of threats on attitudes towards migrants, on the tradeoff between civil liberties and security, and on trust in political leaders regarding their ability to address environmental challenges.