An economic framework and empirical assessment of the demand for firearms and demand for not having firearms in the U.S.

Last registered on January 10, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
An economic framework and empirical assessment of the demand for firearms and demand for not having firearms in the U.S.
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014066
Initial registration date
January 08, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 10, 2025, 1:34 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Harvard University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Harvard University
PI Affiliation
Harvard University

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2024-12-12
End date
2025-04-12
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Firearms have become the leading cause of death among U.S. children rising 50% between 2019 and 2021 (Pew Research, 2023). There are now more firearms in America than people (approximately 400 million) and one-quarter of teachers reported an active shooter event in the last 12 months (Pew Research 2024; The Trace, 2024). Despite these sobering statistics, there is limited rigorous social science research understanding why Americans own lethal firearms (LFA) and the degree to which this demand reflects fully informed and considered decisions. This study uses a large-scale survey with obfuscated screening to recruit firearm and non-firearm owners and conduct a survey experiment. Firearm owners are randomized into one of four groups: a control group, a treatment group receiving information about the legal and health-related costs of LFA ownership, a group exposed to information about a non-lethal firearm alternative, or a group receiving the non-lethal firearm alternative information along with an endorsement from a conservative personality. Non-firearm owners are randomized into a control group or a treatment group receiving the legal and health-related costs information. We will compare outcomes across these groups, including beliefs, behaviors, and policy views. A follow-up survey will assess recall, behavioral changes, and potential non-lethal firearm acquisition.


External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Alsan, Marcella, Joshua Schwartzstein and Stefanie Stantcheva. 2025. "An economic framework and empirical assessment of the demand for firearms and demand for not having firearms in the U.S.." AEA RCT Registry. January 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14066-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2024-12-21
Intervention End Date
2025-04-12

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcome variables in this experiment include beliefs (e.g., perceptions of safety and risks), behaviors (e.g., signing petitions, willingness to pay for non-lethal firearm alternatives and gun safes), views on non-lethal alternatives, and policy views (e.g., support for concealed carry regulations and swap programs) concerning firearm ownership.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The primary outcomes will be analyzed using two approaches. First, individual survey questions will be analyzed independently. Second, we will construct indices for each primary outcome category (beliefs, behaviors, views and policy views) and sub-categories by aggregating related survey items that have been standardized to ensure comparability.

Additionally, we will examine heterogeneity in treatment effects across different ML-determined types, gun-safe ownership (imputed or stated), as well as prior knowledge of Byrna. Furthermore, we plan to explore the heterogeneity of the endorsement treatment effect, particularly with respect to Fox News viewership.

For the MPL question, we will analyze results both for the full sample, as well as for a restricted sample who demonstrate comprehension of the task and consistency in their responses. We will also conduct additional estimations of nonlinear models for the MPL, comparing the likelihood of having a positive willingness to pay (WTP) and performing ordered logit regressions.


Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The experimental design includes individual-level randomization. Participants are first divided by gun ownership status, and randomization is conducted separately within each group. Firearm owners are assigned to one of four groups: no video (control), a video on the legal and health-related costs of firearm ownership, a video about the Byrna non-lethal firearm alternative, or a video combining Byrna information with an endorsement from a conservative personality. Non-firearm owners are randomized to either no video (control) or the video on legal and health-related firearm ownership costs. A follow-up survey will evaluate recall of the intervention, any actions taken regarding non-lethal alternatives, and potential risk-compensating behavior.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done by Qualtrics.
Randomization Unit
All randomizations are conducted at the individual level. Participants are stratified by gun ownership status, and randomization into treatment arms is conducted separately within each group (gun owners and non-gun owners).
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
3,600 gun owners and 2,400 non-gun owners.
Sample size: planned number of observations
6,000 participants. Our main sample will include participants who pass attention checks. For sections of the study that involve consistency and comprehension checks, we will also analyze responses for a restricted sample of respondents who pass those checks. We will carefully monitor accrual rates throughout the data collection process. If the yield of main sample responses slows or the data quality deteriorates (as measured by consistency and comprehension checks), we may need to truncate the sample size and consider reweighting the sample to enhance its representativeness.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
6,000 participants. 3,600 gun owners (60%) and 2,400 non-gun owners (40%).

Gun owners: 900 participants by treatment arm (Control, Cost information, Byrna information and Byrna Endorsement).

Non-Gun Owners: 1,200 participants by treatment arm (Control, Cost information).

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Harvard University Area Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2024-11-22
IRB Approval Number
IRB24-0725