The Effects of the US Presidential Election on Affective Polarization: Pre-Analysis Plan

Last registered on August 14, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Effects of the US Presidential Election on Affective Polarization: Pre-Analysis Plan
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014156
Initial registration date
August 09, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 14, 2024, 2:39 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Christian Höhne
Affiliation
University of Cambridge
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Edoardo Gallo
PI Affiliation
University of Cambridge
PI Name
Toke Aidt
PI Affiliation
University of Cambridge

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-08-13
End date
2025-02-28
Keywords
Behavior, Electoral
Additional Keywords
Polarization
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The purpose of this research project is twofold. We first aim to compare incentivized measures of polarization – captured as behavior in trust & prisoner dilemma games – against commonly used survey-elicited measurements of polarization. To do so, we employ an event-study approach, comparing polarization levels at an early stage of the presidential campaign and around the US presidential election. This also enables us to address our second research goal, namely to experimentally investigate the effect of the US presidential election process on affective polarization.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Aidt, Toke, Edoardo Gallo and Christian Höhne. 2024. "The Effects of the US Presidential Election on Affective Polarization: Pre-Analysis Plan." AEA RCT Registry. August 14. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14156-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2024-09-01
Intervention End Date
2024-11-05

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
We are looking at affective polarisation measured by survey responses and experimentally incentivized behavior:
- ANES thermometer measure
- Survey Trust measure
- Social Distance measure
- Experimental Trust measure
- Experimental Trustworthiness measure
- Experimental Cooperation measure
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Most of our outcomes are constructed by taking substracting the out-partisan response/decision to a question or in a game from the respective co-partisan response/decision.
For example, the ANES thermometer measure is constructed as 'Feeling towards Affiliated Party' - 'Feeling towards Unaffiliated Party'.
Similarly, the survey measure on trust is constructed as 'Trust towards Co-Partisans' - 'Trust towards Out-Partisans'.
The experimental measures are constructed by taking the difference between decisions towards co-partisans and out-partisans in the trust and prisoner dilemma game.
For the social distance measure, we cannot contrast partisanship differences but build our measure as the response to the Likert scale of the question.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Through our experimental set-up, we can elicit some of the key underlying factors of affective polarization. The Trust Game (TG) allows us to elicit participants’ levels of trust and reciprocity, while in the Prisoner Dilemma Game (PDG), we can see if participants choose to cooperate with their partners. By informing participants about the partisanship of the participant they are playing with, we can test the effect of partisan identity on behavior and thereby elicit an experimental measure of affective polarization.
This experimental measure can then be benchmarked against commonly used survey measures of affective polarisation, such as the ANES thermometer question, social distance and trust questions.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
We randomize the order in which participants play the games per computer.
Randomization Unit
There are two levels for our treatments:
1. We randomise the order in which participants play the games. This is done on the individual level.
2. We also use participants' state of residence as identifying variation in our analysis.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
10 states
Sample size: planned number of observations
1,200 observations overall. 400 observations per experimental wave.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
5 treatment states and 5 control states
600 observations per treatment arm and 200 observation per treatment arm and experimental wave.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics
IRB Approval Date
2024-07-15
IRB Approval Number
UCAM-FoE-24-04
Analysis Plan

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