US Presidential Election and Economic Expectations

Last registered on August 28, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
US Presidential Election and Economic Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014195
Initial registration date
August 16, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 28, 2024, 1:40 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Samir Huseynov
Affiliation
Auburn University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-08-16
End date
2024-11-16
Keywords
Behavior, Electoral, Finance & Microfinance, Firms & Productivity, Governance, Welfare
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
In this project, we investigate whether (anticipated) economic policies of one U.S. presidential candidate (Donald J. Trump, DJT) influence households’ economic expectations. We plan to administer high-frequency surveys (twice or three (or more) times a week) throughout the election cycle to study the dynamics of expectations. DJT’s winning probability will change over the election process, which allows us to identify the relationship between his winning probability and the change in economic expectations.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Huseynov, Samir. 2024. "US Presidential Election and Economic Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. August 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14195-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Our surveys will measure individuals’ opinions of the future behavior of economic metrics (ranging from their prediction of major stock indices, such as the S&P 500, to oil prices and slow-changing economic markers like the inflation rate and GDP growth rate) as of June 2025, i.e., six months after the next president takes office. We will randomly assign study participants to different information treatments.
Intervention Start Date
2024-08-16
Intervention End Date
2024-11-16

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Economic expectations, belief certainty, belief updating
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
belief updating will be the difference between priors and posteriors

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
we plan to carry out an information experiment in the same surveys.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
by computer
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
around 20
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
700
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Auburn University
IRB Approval Date
2024-08-16
IRB Approval Number
STUDY00000009
Analysis Plan

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