A Field Experiment on Agricultural Producers’ Responses to Weather Information and Soil Changes

Last registered on August 28, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
A Field Experiment on Agricultural Producers’ Responses to Weather Information and Soil Changes
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014213
Initial registration date
August 22, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 28, 2024, 3:12 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Canada
Region
Ontario

Primary Investigator

Name
Siyu Wang
Affiliation
Wichita State University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Tongzhe Li
PI Affiliation
University of Guelph
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-09-08
End date
2024-09-15
Keywords
Agriculture, Behavior, Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
Field Experiment, Belief, Weather Change, Farmers' decisions, Auctions
JEL code(s)
Q12
Secondary IDs
D83
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Information and narratives have been suggested as drivers of public opinion and triggers for major economic events. Opinion-based and factual information impact public opinions differently, with literature suggesting that echo chambers exist on various issues. We aim to explore three main questions: 1) whether individuals informed that their opinions will be shared are more expressive of their views; 2) whether beliefs differ when individuals receive factual information versus different types of opinion-based information; and 3) how identity interacts with individuals’ belief-updating processes. This experiment investigates whether reality aligns with theory in the decision-making of real agricultural producers.

We will conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment at the 2024 Canada’s Outdoor Farm Show (COFS) in Ontario, Canada. Subjects will be asked several belief-related questions regarding weather and soil changes, followed by a charitable giving question and preference elicitation for a soil test using a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism (Becker et al., 1964). The outcome variables of interest will be farmers’ beliefs, charitable giving, and bids on the examined products under various between-subjects treatments.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Li, Tongzhe and Siyu Wang. 2024. "A Field Experiment on Agricultural Producers’ Responses to Weather Information and Soil Changes ." AEA RCT Registry. August 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14213-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Treatment 1-1
In this treatment, subjects will first be presented with the rainfall estimate question, followed by a climate change question. They will be informed that their answers will be anonymously shared with other subjects. Subjects will be provided with factual information signals about rainfall change, after which they will be presented with the question again.
Treatment 1-2
In this treatment, everything is the same as in Treatment 1-1, except that subjects will be told that their answers will NOT be shared with other subjects.
Treatment 1-3
In this treatment, everything is the same as in Treatment 1-1, except that subjects will first be presented with the climate change question, followed by the rainfall question.
Treatment 1-4
In this treatment, everything is the same as in Treatment 1-3, except that subjects will be told that their answers will NOT be shared with other subjects.
Treatment 2-1
In this treatment, subjects will first be presented with a rainfall question, followed by a climate change question. They will be informed that their answers will NOT be shared with other subjects. Subjects will be provided with opinion-based information from those attributing rainfall changes to climate change, after which they will be presented with the rainfall question again.
Treatment 2-2
In this treatment, everything is the same as in Treatment 2-1, except that subjects will be provided with opinion-based information from those not attributing rainfall changes to climate change, after which they will be presented with the rainfall question again.
Treatment 2-3
In this treatment, everything is the same as in Treatment 2-1, except that subjects will first be presented with the climate change question, followed by the rainfall question.
Treatment 2-4
In this treatment, everything is the same as in Treatment 2-2, except that subjects will first be presented with the climate change question, followed by the rainfall question.
Intervention Start Date
2024-09-10
Intervention End Date
2024-09-12

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
prior belief of precipitation, posterior belief of precipitation, posterior belief of soil quality, WTP for soil test, other-other allocation
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
climate change opinion, factual versus opinion-based information, treatments specified in the intervention

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This experiment aims to establish the causal relationship between information and farmers' beliefs about precipitation changes, soil quality, their charitable-giving behavior, and their bids for a soil test kit. Before providing any information, we ask farmers to estimate the change in rainfall within Ontario over the last five years (2019-2023) compared to the previous five years (2014-2018). We also ask whether they believe this change is due to climate change. The sequence of these two questions is varied to determine whether declaring their stance on climate change influences their estimates of weather changes. Additionally, we inform the first-day farmers whether their answers will be shared with others to examine if the potential for social influence affects their stated beliefs.

Next, we provide the first-day farmers with factual information containing noise and measure their updated beliefs about rainfall changes. We also ask them to evaluate the change in soil quality in Ontario over the same periods. On the second and third days, instead of providing factual information with noise, we present opinion-based information, sourced either from first-day farmers who attribute the rainfall change to climate change or those who do not.

Besides belief elicitation, each subject bids on the required amount ∈ [-$50, $50] for a soil test kit. After submitting their bids, subjects will complete a post-experiment questionnaire that includes agricultural, demographic, and farm-specific questions, as well as their preferences for donating between two NGOs: The Canadian Environmental Network and the Canadian Olympic Committee. Each farmer will receive $15 CAD for participating in the experiment and an additional $10 for completing the belief elicitation questions. Subjects will input their responses via HTML pages displayed on iPads.
Experimental Design Details
This experiment aims to establish the causal relationship between information and farmers' beliefs about precipitation changes, soil quality, their charitable-giving behavior, and their bids for a soil test kit. Before providing any information, we ask farmers to estimate the change in rainfall within Ontario over the last five years (2019-2023) compared to the previous five years (2014-2018). We also ask whether they believe this change is due to climate change. The sequence of these two questions is varied to determine whether declaring their stance on climate change influences their estimates of weather changes. Additionally, we inform the first-day farmers whether their answers will be shared with others to examine if the potential for social influence affects their stated beliefs.

Next, we provide the first-day farmers with factual information containing noise and measure their updated beliefs about rainfall changes. We also ask them to evaluate the change in soil quality in Ontario over the same periods. On the second and third days, instead of providing factual information with noise, we present opinion-based information, sourced either from first-day farmers who attribute the rainfall change to climate change or those who do not.

Besides belief elicitation, each subject bids on the required amount ∈ [-$50, $50] for a soil test kit. After submitting their bids, subjects will complete a post-experiment questionnaire that includes agricultural, demographic, and farm-specific questions, as well as their preferences for donating between two NGOs: The Canadian Environmental Network and the Canadian Olympic Committee. Each farmer will receive $15 CAD for participating in the experiment and an additional $10 for completing the belief elicitation questions. Subjects will input their responses via HTML pages displayed on iPads.
Randomization Method
Treatment randomization is conducted by computer
Randomization Unit
individual farmer
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
512 farmers
Sample size: planned number of observations
512 farmers
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
around 64 farmers
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Guelph Research Ethics Board
IRB Approval Date
2022-08-09
IRB Approval Number
22-02-009
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials