Macro Tail Risk Expectations

Last registered on September 17, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Macro Tail Risk Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014340
Initial registration date
September 10, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 17, 2024, 11:37 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Manuel Menkhoff
Affiliation
ifo Institute
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-10-01
End date
2025-12-01
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance, Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
I study how exogenous variation in macroeconomic tail risk expectations perceived by firms affects their decision-making. I use randomized information treatments (2 groups) to generate this exogenous variation.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Menkhoff, Manuel. 2024. "Macro Tail Risk Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. September 17. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14340-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
I provide information on macro tail risk.
Intervention Start Date
2024-10-01
Intervention End Date
2024-10-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Investment plans
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Indicator to plan a decrease in investment next year.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Other investment measures. Employment plans. first and second moment expectations
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
first and second moment expectations in the form of business expectations and macro expectations

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
elicit pre-treatment beliefs
assign groups into treatment and controls
treated groups are provided with information
elicit post-treatment beliefs
elicit decisions (in following waves)
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
randomization done by the survey team (computer).
Randomization Unit
survey respondent
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
3 sectors (industry, services, trade)
Sample size: planned number of observations
6000 firms
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
around 3000 firms control, around 3000 firms treatment
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan