Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The baseline survey collects the priors using the following questions:
1- What do you think will be the annual growth rate of real GDP in New Zealand in twelve months? Please provide an answer in percentage terms.
Answer: …………… \% per year
Could you provide us with an approximate range of what you think annualized real GDP growth in New Zealand will be over the next 12 months?
Answer: Real GDP growth over the next 12 months will be between ....... % per year (lowest forecast) and ...... % per year (highest forecast)
This question is directed exclusively to firms that received the treatment.
Please let me know what you perceive as the most pessimistic, the most likely, and most optimistic real GDP growth rate for New Zealand over the next 12 months. What do you think the lowest annualized real GDP growth rate might be for this time period, what do you think the most likely might be, and what do you think the highest might be? (please provide an answer as % per year).
Lowest real GDP growth rate: ……….. \% per year
Most likely GDP growth rate: ……….. \% per year
Highest real GDP growth rate: ……….. \% per year
The endline survey collects this information using the following question:
Please let me know what you perceive as the most pessimistic, the most likely, and most optimistic real GDP growth rate for New Zealand over the next 12 months. What do you think the lowest annualized real GDP growth rate might be for this time period, what do you think the most likely might be, and what do you think the highest might be? (please provide an answer as % per year).
Lowest real GDP growth rate: ……….. \% per year
Most likely GDP growth rate: ……….. \% per year
Highest real GDP growth rate: ……….. \% per year
The baseline survey collects the predictions of how the firm plans to change the prices over the next three months (prior to the information provided about the GDP forecast).
Over the next 3 months, by how much (in \% changes relative to current level) do you expect to change:
a) The price of your main product: ……………. \%
b) Investment in capital goods: ……………. \%
c) Employment at your firm: ……………. \%
d) Average wages: ……………. \%
The endline surveys ask the respondent the actual actions taken by the firm using the following question:
Over the last 3 months, by how much (in \% changes) did you change:
a. The price of your main product: ……………. \%\\
b. Investment in capital goods: ……………. \% \\
c. Employment at your firm: ……………. \% \\
d. Average wages: ……………. \%