Signaling and Migrant Labor Market Integration: Experimental evidence from Colombia

2024-10-01

2024-11-15

The main outcomes of the evaluation correspond to labor market outcomes that quantify the level of integration to the local economy:
1) Extensive (employment status) and intensive (hours worked) measures of employment;
2) Wages.

However, a series of secondary outcomes may be collected depending on the response rate in the pilot follow-up (if the length of the questionnaire risks high attrition rates, we will only focus on the primary outcomes):

a) Labor Market:
1) Probability of further educational attainments (after program finished);
2) Probability of formal employment;
3) Size of firm (only for employed);
4) Economic sector of the company;
5) Type of occupation (support staff, administrative, operator, etc.);
6) Probability of wanting to have a different job (only for employed);
7) Job satisfaction;
8) Duration of unemployment (only for unemployed);
9) Minimum acceptable salary to changing job (reservation wage) ;
10) Maximum expected salary

b) Mental Health:
11) Anxiety and nervousness questions (PHQ-9)

c) Measures of Poverty:
12) Probability of skipping a meal during the day due to lack of economic resources

d) Perceptions about the program:
13) Willingness to pay for the skills certification
14) Willingness to participate in the certification program in the absence of subsidies
15) Impact of the subsidies on the perception of the certification program

Since 2020, in response to the migrant crisis, the Colombian government has put in place a skill certification program that allows locals and foreigners to certify their skills in certain job competencies by means of an empirical evaluation. The initiative, named Saber Hacer Vale, is implemented by the Colombian Ministry of Labor and the national vocational training office (SENA). It provides participants with an evaluation that leads to issueing a certification about the skill level in that competency. Saber Hacer Vale, in addition, provides participants with: 1) guidance on the Ministry's job search platform; and 2) financial assistance during their participation.

Saber Hacer Vale targets Colombians and foreign individuals classified as vulnerable. To be eligible for its additional benefits, participants must demonstrate that they meet at least one of the following vulnerability criteria:
- Household heads or report having people under care;
- Ages between 18 and 28 or over 60;
- Member of an ethnic group or the LGBTIQ+ community;
- Migrant;
- Colombian citizen who returned to the country;
- Low income.
The goal is to promote access for vulnerable populations who may benefit from a public signal to enter the job market. Importantly, at least 30 percent of the available spots are reserved for migrants with regular permit status.

All beneficiaries of Saber Hacer Vale receive food and connectivity subsidies totaling approximately $82 USD. Additionally, some beneficiaries qualify for further support, including: $75 USD for those with dependents, a $30 USD transportation subsidy if the test is conducted in person, and a $30 USD subsidy for those enrolled in the gap-closure program. Participants can receive up to $217 USD in total support, which is equivalent to 70 percent of the minimum salary. Notably, the program includes strong completion incentives, as beneficiaries receive the cash benefits upon program completion.

The program is implemented in four stages. First, the Ministry defines a set of competencies to be certified and identifies a geographic location for the program. The competencies evaluated are typically selected based on labor demand data and the historical success of technical certifications. Second, the number of participants is determined according to the available budget. Third, the call for applications is launched, and candidates fill out an enrollment form available on the Ministry's website. Finally, the documentation is reviewed and verified to determine eligibility for the program.

Our experimental intervention is integrated into the fifth round of Saber Hacer Vale, which is currently taking place during 2024. It is targeted to Colombian and foreigners living in the Colombian Pacific region, specifically in the states of Valle del Cauca, Cauca, and Nariño. A total of 855 spots are being offered, distributed across the following competencies: 1) Health Services; 2) Food Processing; 3) Tourism; 4) Design and Tailoring; and 5) Handcrafts. Beneficiaries of this round will receive the full benefits of the program, including skills certification, financial aid, and guidance using the job search platform. If the budget allows, we plan to additionally include the 2025 round of Saber Hacer Vale in the evaluation. This second round will follow the same procedures as the 2024 round described herein.

The 2024 implementation and evaluation timeline for Saber Hacer Vale began with a media campaign in May and June 2024. Multiple dissemination channels were put in place, including social media, radio, and television, and on-site agents were hired to facilitate enrollment. Interested individuals could register for the program between June and August 2024. A total of 2600 of the registered individuals met the program's eligibility criteria by the end of the application period.

In accordance with the Ministry of Labor, and given the excess demand, access to this round of Saber Hacer Vale shifted from a first-come, first-served method to a random assignment process. On September 6th, 2024, the 855 available spots were randomly allocated among the 2,600 eligible applicants, creating the treatment group of the evaluation. The randomization was stratified by competencies and migrant status. This process ensured a sufficient number of beneficiaries within each competency and allocated 30 percent of the spots (i.e., 250) to migrants. Eligible individuals who were not randomly selected formed the control group for the evaluation.

Individuals randomly selected to the treatment group will first be assessed by a qualified SENA assessor, who will determine if the participant possesses the necessary skill level to perform the competency for which she registered. If approved, the participant will receive a certification issued by SENA along with financial incentives for completing the program. If not approved, the participant will be offered the opportunity to take a gap-closure program. Upon completion of this program, the participant can retake the exam; if successful, the certification will be issued and financial incentives provided.

The skill evaluation performed by SENA is scheduled to take place during October and November 2024. Skill certificates are to be issued starting November 15th, when all the participants are believed to have been fully assessed.

Not available

Randomization was performed by an algorithm that stratified by competence level, migrant status, and guaranteed that the financial incentives given to the treatment group met the budget of the Colombian Ministry of Labor.

Randomization into the program was performed at the individual level. The randomization was stratified at the competence level and migrant status.

No

We do not have a cluster-adjusted randomization.

This study includes a total of 2,160 individuals who registered to the program. Out of these, 855 are randomly selected to receive the treatment (i.e., the skills evaluations and, if aproved, the certifications). The remaining 1,305 are assigned to the control group. The sample is stratified by migrant status. Thus, 1,676 (605 treated and 1,071 controls) are Colombian nationals and the remaining 484 (250 treated and 234 controls) are foreigners. As previously mentioned, we are considering including the 2025 round of Saber Hacer Vale in the evaluation. If included, the treatment and control groups will double in size, with 30 percent of spots allocated to migrants. The remainder of the evaluation will follow the same procedures. The decision to include this second round depends on the budget availability in 2025.

The randomization is performed at the individual level. This means that the total sample size is equivalent to 2,600 individuals, where 32 percent of the sample is treated.

Our empirical design allow us to estimate a minimum detectable effect of 0.14 standard deviations for the group of locals and of 0.26 for the group of migrants. Given that we expect a 10 percent attrition rate, then the minimum detectable effects will increase to 0.15 standard deviations for locals and to 0.27 standard deviations for immigrants. Using the pooled sample between two groups implies a minimum detectable effect of 0.123 standard deviations.