Expecting Climate Change

Last registered on October 07, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Expecting Climate Change
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014485
Initial registration date
September 26, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
October 07, 2024, 7:03 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Robert Metcalfe
Affiliation
Columbia University
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2020-09-01
End date
2021-01-01
Keywords
Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Climate change presents new risks for property in the United States. Due to the high cost and sometimes unavailability of location-specific property risk data, home buyers can greatly benefit from acquiring knowledge about these risks. To explore this, a large-scale nationwide natural field experiment will be conducted through Redfin to estimate the causal impact of providing home-specific flood risk information on the behavior of home buyers in terms of their search, bidding, and purchasing decisions.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Metcalfe, Robert. 2024. "Expecting Climate Change." AEA RCT Registry. October 07. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14485-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2020-09-01
Intervention End Date
2021-01-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Changes in home search behavior (e.g., properties viewed by flood risk level).
Changes in bidding behavior (e.g., properties bid on, and the flood risk level of these properties).
Property purchase decisions (e.g., final flood risk level of purchased homes).
Hedonic housing price changes in high flood risk areas.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The trial employed a natural field experiment conducted through Redfin, a major real estate platform in the United States. The analysis focuses on a subset of 1,328,785 registered users, as these users have a higher likelihood of purchasing a home and allow for guaranteed compliance with treatment assignment. These users were randomly assigned to treatment or control groups. Users in the treatment group received additional property-specific flood risk information, including a flood risk score (1-10) and a 30-year flooding likelihood prediction. The control group did not receive any flood risk information. The study used a difference-in-differences approach to compare behavior between treated and control users.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
By a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clusters.
Sample size: planned number of observations
1,328,785 registered Redfin users
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
50:50.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials