Personal Risk Preference Survey

Last registered on October 28, 2024

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Personal Risk Preference Survey

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0014628

Initial registration date

October 22, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

October 28, 2024, 1:01 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country

United States of America

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

W Kip Viscusi

Affiliation

Vanderbilt University

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2024-11-01

End date

2024-11-08

Keywords

Other

Additional Keywords

risk preferences, behavioral, happiness, satisfaction, regret

JEL code(s)

D80, D90

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

This study will is based on an online survey that we will administer to an adult panel. The randomization component is that different respondents will be presented with different probabilities of a potential lottery outcome. Our hypothesis is that the happiness/satisfaction level after a good and bad outcome will depend on both whether the lottery payoff was a good or bad outcome and whether the probability of this outcome was high or low.

The survey will also collect information on risk beliefs. Our hypotheses are i) that people will assess bad outcomes as having a lower probability than good outcomes, ii) that people will overestimate small risks and underestimate large risks, and that biases in risk beliefs also will influence attitudes toward probabilities more generally.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Viscusi, W Kip. 2024. "Personal Risk Preference Survey." AEA RCT Registry. October 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14628-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

National survey with randomized treatments with different probabilities.

Intervention (Hidden)

The survey will randomize the probabilities of outcomes and elicit assessments of happiness/satisfaction after good and bad outcomes. The survey will also elicit information on risk beliefs.

Intervention Start Date

2024-11-01

Intervention End Date

2024-11-08

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

The key outcome variables are the happiness/satisfaction measures and the risk belief variables.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

If our predictions are correct, for lotteries on good outcomes the happiness levels will be higher if the initial probabilities of success are higher. For lotteries on bad outcomes, the happiness levels will be lower if the initial probabilities of success are higher.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

People will overestimate low probability events and underestimate high probability events. These biases also will influence attitudes toward the primary outcome risk lotteries.

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

The experiment will present respondents with different probabilities of good and bad outcomes. These probabilities will be randomized across subjects.

Experimental Design Details

As indicated above, people should be happier if unexpected good outcomes occur than if the probability had been higher. If the good outcome does not occur, their disappointment should be less if the initial probability was lower. Similarly, for bad outcomes that occur, a low initial probability will lead to lower happiness levels than if the initial probability was high. For bad outcomes that do not occur, the happiness level will be greater if the initial probability of a bad outcome was high.

Randomization Method

Randomization by a computer.

Randomization Unit

Individual.

Was the treatment clustered?

Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

1000

Sample size: planned number of observations

1000

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

250 for each of the four possibilities (2 outcomes (good or bad) and 2 probabilities (high or low)), for each of the 3 risk attitude situation questions.

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

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