The Role of Communication and Deniability in Managerial Overinvestment

Last registered on November 15, 2024

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Role of Communication and Deniability in Managerial Overinvestment
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014678
Initial registration date
October 28, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
November 15, 2024, 12:54 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Virginia Commonwealth University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Virginia Commonwealth University
PI Affiliation
Virginia Commonwealth University

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-11-04
End date
2025-11-03
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We experimentally investigate the role of deniability and communication in reducing managerial overinvestment. Managers often have private information about the profitability of a particular investment, and capital markets may assume that the investment itself indicates that the manager's information was favorable. In this case, managers who value the share price of their firm have an incentive to overinvest, i.e. to make an investment even when the net present value of the investment is negative. In our experiment, managers make investment decisions and traders can buy or sell shares of the firm. Overinvestment is the unique equilibrium of the one-shot game, but in a repeated setting it can also be an equilibrium to make efficient investment choices. We experimentally vary whether managers can communicate their investment plans to traders, and whether managers can credibly deny that an inefficient investment was due to bad luck rather than a deliberate misrepresentation of the manager's intentions. We hypothesize that the introduction of communication will reduce overinvestment by managers, and the effect will be stronger when lies are detectable as opposed to the treatments where lies are deniable.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Davis, Douglas, Oleg Korenok and John Lightle. 2024. "The Role of Communication and Deniability in Managerial Overinvestment." AEA RCT Registry. November 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14678-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2024-11-04
Intervention End Date
2025-11-03

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The investment decisions of managers in our experiment, and the actions of traders.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The outcome will be directly measured using experimental data.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will have a 2x2 factorial design where we vary communication (Comm, No Comm) and the quality of manager's private information about the profitability of investment (Perfect, Imperfect). We will use a between-subjects design with participants in only one of the four treatment cells.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Assignment to treatments will occur randomly using the recruitment software ORSEE by Ben Greiner.
Randomization Unit
Randomization will occur at the individual level as they agree to participate in the experiment.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
There is a single cluster of participants and that is the students at VCU who have volunteered to participate in economic experiments.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Approximately 240 experimental subjects are planned, each with up to 50 (non-independent) observations.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
60 subjects in No Communication x Perfect
60 subjects in Communication x Perfect
60 subjects in No Communication x Imperfect
60 subjects in Communication x Imperfect
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Virginia Commonwealth University Institutional Review Board
IRB Approval Date
2019-09-30
IRB Approval Number
HM20017054