Trade Policy Uncertainty and Firm Behavior

Last registered on December 03, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Firm Behavior
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014819
Initial registration date
November 24, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 03, 2024, 1:16 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Haoran He
Affiliation
Beijing Normal University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Kelin Lu
PI Affiliation
Huazhong University of Science and Technology
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PI Name
Qian Weng
PI Affiliation
Renmin University of China
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2024-11-01
End date
2026-12-31
Keywords
Behavior, Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
trade policy uncertainty, firm behavior, vignette, China
JEL code(s)
C93, D83, F13
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We conducted a field experiment with manufacturing firms in a coastal region of China for the country’s export-oriented economy to understand firms’ expectations about and responses to trade policy uncertainty (TPU).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
He, Haoran, Kelin Lu and Qian Weng. 2024. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Firm Behavior." AEA RCT Registry. December 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14819-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
n/a
Intervention Start Date
2024-11-20
Intervention End Date
2025-09-19

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
- Priors:
• Beliefs about the likelihood of future tariff rate increase, decrease, or remaining unchanged over the next year and five years after the next year;
• Beliefs about the average degree of tariff rate increase and decrease over the same time horizons;
• Investment plans for the next year: export volume of main products, inventory levels of main products, unit prices of main products, total employment, total fixed assets, average wages, investment in technology/equipment within China and abroad, the establishment of new facilities within China and abroad, new products or services, expansion to new markets, cut in firm’s costs except for wages.

- Posteriors:
• Updated investment plan under hypothetical scenario described in vignette
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
n/a

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
- Mechanisms
• Revenue elasticity to tariffs
• Investment and hiring irreversibility
• Open text and choices based on structural list of potential reasons about why firms update or not update investment plan.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
n/a

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We conducted a survey with vignette about TPU to study the impact of TPU on firms’ investment decisions.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is done by the Qualtrics system we use to design and conduct our survey.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomization is at the individual firm level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
n/a
Sample size: planned number of observations
3000 firms/managers.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
750 (=3000/4) if four treatments, or 1000 (=3000/3) if three treatments.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
As the sample is large enough, power for economically significant effects is not a concern. But if needed, we will do so later after the data is collected and standard deviations are known.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Institutional Review Board of Renmin University of China
IRB Approval Date
2024-11-12
IRB Approval Number
RUC-SLHR20240012
Analysis Plan

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