Experimental Design
We have embedded a survey experiment in a broader survey to subsamples of national household surveys conducted by the National Statistics Offices (NSOs) in participating countries. The experiment involves three versions of the survey questionnaire (A, B, and C), which contain identical questions but differ in the order in which key sections are presented.
• Survey A begins with questions about insecurity experiences, followed by sections on discontent and concerns; perceptions of inequality, injustice, and discrimination; political preferences and democracy; preferences for redistribution; expressions of discontent; and self-exclusion.
• Survey B starts with questions on economic anxiety and expectations, followed by the same sections as in Survey A.
• Survey C serves as the control group, presenting the sections on insecurity experiences and economic anxiety and expectations at the end of the survey.
We randomize which version individuals receive. This design allows us to measure how priming respondents to think about insecurity or economic anxiety shape their levels of discontent and democratic attitudes.
Detailed Account of Sampling, Survey Procedure, and Fieldwork
1. The Sample
1.1. Requirements for National Statistics Offices (NSOs):
- The survey must use a subsample drawn from the sample of the country’s National Household Survey, including sociodemographic characteristics and total household income. The subsample must be selected from the 2022 or 2023 wave of the National Household Survey and may include unipersonal households if they are randomly selected.
- The subsample must be representative of per capita income quintiles for the urban population, urban centers, or the country’s capital city. Survey respondents must be adults between the ages of 18 and 50, randomly selected from the household members in this age range. The random selection criteria must be verifiable (e.g., selecting the adult in the age range who most recently had a birthday).
- Participation is restricted to adults who perceive their household's socioeconomic conditions (household composition, occupations, and income) as being similar to the last time the household was contacted. This will be verified through a filter question at the beginning of the survey.
- The survey is designed to take approximately 20 minutes to complete.
- Each survey will yield around 2,500 effective observations.
1.2. Measures to Increase Response Rates:
- If the initially selected individual is unavailable, another individual from the same household in the same age range may be selected using the same randomization criteria. A maximum of two replacements is allowed. If the third randomly selected individual does not respond, the household will no longer be part of the sample.
- An individual is considered unavailable under the following circumstances: refusal to answer, absence (for in-person surveys), failure to answer the phone (in phone surveys), or health or disability conditions that prevent participation. Only one individual per household will be surveyed.
- For phone surveys, enumerators are required to make at least six contact attempts before considering an observation "lost." Contact attempts should be made at varying times of the day and on different days of the week, including weekends. An observation will only be classified as "lost" after exhaustive efforts to reach the respondent.
- A protocol will be implemented to minimize non-response rates and ensure quality data collection.
2. Fieldwork
2.1. The NSO receives the initial version of the questionnaire and adjusts it for local language usage. This is followed by a cognitive test and a pilot survey administered to a small number of households.
- The cognitive test ensures that the survey concepts are well understood across different contexts and socioeconomic backgrounds, independent of responses to the pilot survey.
- The pilot survey helps identify issues with survey flow and respondent comprehension.
2.2. Based on the findings of the cognitive test and pilot survey, the questionnaire is refined, and the official survey is launched.
2.3. Fieldwork is expected to last no longer than four weeks per country, though schedules vary based on contract start dates.
3. Current Progress
Colombia and Guatemala are currently in the field implementing the survey. Peru is set to begin in about a week. The exact start date for Ecuador remains unclear. Guatemala and Colombia are expected to complete data collection around mid-December.