Abstract
This study investigates the impact of U.S. technology restrictions on the college major choices of Chinese students. Since 2018, the U.S. government has introduced policies targeting China's high-tech industries. These policies probit the export of high-tech products to specific Chinese companies, primarily in sectors such as aerospace, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and computing. Given the reliance of these industries on U.S. technologies and the intensifying U.S.-China tensions, the restrictions are expected to have significant implications for China's industrial structure and labor market. While recent research has examined how Chinese firms are adapting to these restrictions and how the Chinese government is responding with industrial policies like subsidies and R&D support, little is known about the impact of these policies on students' educational and career decisions.
On one hand, these restrictions could negatively affect job prospects in the restricted industries if they stifle growth, potentially discouraging top students from pursuing related majors. On the other hand, these restrictions could incentivize domestic innovation and production in these fields. Combined with supportive government policies and funding, they could create new opportunities, making these majors more appealing. Moreover, foreign restrictions could evoke a sense of patriotism, encouraging students to pursue careers in the restricted fields.
Understanding this dynamic is critical, as the allocation of top talent has long-term implications for the development of high-tech industries. If fewer high-achieving students choose majors in restricted fields, these industries may face challenges in fostering growth and innovation. Conversely, if restrictions attract more top talent, they could drive independent innovation and development despite external restrictions.
To address these questions, we will conduct a survey experiment with approximately 1,000 high school juniors and seniors in China who are preparing for college entrance exams. Students will be randomly assigned to one of two groups: a treatment group that is exposed to information about U.S. technology restrictions targeting specific high-tech fields, and a control group that receives a placebo message of similar length unrelated to the restrictions. The information treatment aims to simulate the policy shock for students who are unaware of the restrictions and to increase the salience of these policies for those already aware.
For both groups, we will collect data on demographics, family background, and students’ intentions to pursue majors that are more or less related to the restricted fields. By comparing major preferences between the treatment and control groups, we aim to assess how the U.S. restrictions influence students' intentions toward majors in the restricted fields. Additionally, we will investigate potential mechanisms driving these decisions by eliciting students’ expected returns for different majors, their nationalistic values, and their reasons behind their major choices. This study seeks to provide new insights into how U.S.-China tensions influence talent allocation and shape China's educational and economic landscape.