Experimental Design
In the survey, we will describe scenarios about future trends in the global economy in random order across participants. Specifically, one scenario will present optimistic long-term global economic prospects, predicting continued growth and prosperity over the coming decades. In this scenario, advances in technology and global trade may drive sustained long-term growth, increasing the potential for shared prosperity worldwide. The other scenario is pessimistic about long-term global economic prospects, forecasting a deterioration in the global economic situation over the coming decades. In this scenario, technological stagnation, financial instability, and unexpected shocks may hinder long-term growth, thereby decreasing the potential for shared prosperity worldwide.
After each scenario, we will ask participants how likely they think tensions between China and the United States are to escalate into conflict over the next decade.
After reading the two scenarios and answering the two questions on the probability of conflict, we will ask participants how they expect global economic activity to evolve over the coming decades, and under which global economic trends the major powers are most likely and least likely to engage in conflicts.
Then, we will ask them whether they think a policy of increased diplomacy and cooperation is likely to be reciprocated with peace.
Finally, we will ask them to what extent they would support a preemptive strike by the US against China while they still have a relative advantage.