Cigarette Taxes and the Household Budget

Last registered on January 17, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Cigarette Taxes and the Household Budget
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015056
Initial registration date
December 18, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 02, 2025, 9:48 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
January 17, 2025, 3:31 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Johns Hopkins

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-01-22
End date
2025-01-23
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The purpose is to understand how smokers respond to cigarette taxes. Specifically, we study how smokers reallocate their budgets when cigarettes become more expensive, a subject about which little is known. This is especially surprising because the literature has found little effect of cigarette taxes on smoking. That is, given a household budget constraint, when cigarette taxes increase, something must change if smokers are to continue smoking at the same intensity. In addition to an analysis of consumer expenditure survey (CEX) data, we plan to conduct a randomized survey experiment via the survey research platform Prolific. The survey will be of 2,200 current smokers. We plan to ask baseline questions on smoking intensity and shopping behavior, as well as consumption of non-combustible tobacco products. We also ask about baseline weekly expenditures on cigarettes and other discretionary items. We then ask respondents to forecast their smoking and discretionary spending over the next 12 months. Some respondents are randomly assigned a hypothetical cigarette tax increase of 100%. The questions are framed relative to each respondents revealed weekly cigarette expenditures. We have two goals. First, we seek evidence that smokers do adjust on some dimension when taxes increase. Our survey captures potential changes in expenditures in a wide variety of discretionary categories, as well as labor supply. Second, we use the randomized survey experiment to better understand the dimensions on which smokers adjust consumption when taxes increase. This informs our analysis of CEX data. In addition to closed-ended questions on potential responses to cigarette taxes, we also ask an open-ended question on potential responses. We will use AI to categorized these responses and evaluate how they differ by treatment arm.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Darden, Michael et al. 2025. "Cigarette Taxes and the Household Budget." AEA RCT Registry. January 17. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15056-1.1
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
All respondents will be asked to forecast their smoking and other discretionary expenditures over the next 12 months. Half the respondents will be asked these questions in the context of a hypothetical cigarette tax increase of 100%.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-01-22
Intervention End Date
2025-01-23

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Desired smoking behavior over the following 12 months (both extensive and intensive margins); desired non-combustible tobacco behavior over the following 12 months; desired changes in expenditures on entertainment, groceries, dining out, clothing, gasoline, and medications.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will conduct a simple experiment in which half of our sample will be asked to reveal their smoking and expenditure goals over the following 12 months. These control respondents will be asked about their hopes and expectations regarding their smoking behavior and other spending outcomes. The treatment individuals will be presented with a hypothetical cigarette tax increase of 100%, and smoking and expenditures forecasts will be asked referencing the hypothetical tax increase.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization is conducted within Qualtrics.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
2,200 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,200 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1,200 control, 600 treatment (100% increase).
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

Documents

Document Name
Survey
Document Type
survey_instrument
Document Description
File
Survey

MD5: 62a6050e53fcb20bc6fe75348dbc0278

SHA1: e85b2ccc509a5e82cc6542b7b5691a54bc6f66a3

Uploaded At: December 18, 2024

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Johns Hopkins Homewood IRB
IRB Approval Date
2024-11-26
IRB Approval Number
HIRB00020481

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials