Evaluating the effectiveness of Early Warning Based Anticipatory Action to mitigate adverse effects of droughts in Somalia

Last registered on February 25, 2025

Pre-Trial

General Information

Title

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0015065

Initial registration date

February 24, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

February 25, 2025, 10:45 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name

Kamran Khan Niazi

Affiliation

FAO

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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Sara Burrone

PI Affiliation

FAO

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Antonio Scognamillo

PI Affiliation

FAO

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Additional Trial Information

Status

On going

Start date

2024-09-01

End date

2025-04-30

Keywords

Agriculture, Environment & Energy

Additional Keywords

Anticipatory Action, Cash Transfers, Early Warning, Drought, Food Insecurity, Livestock losses, Climate Change, Weather Shocks

JEL code(s)

Q54, O13, I3

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

Climate shocks, including extreme weather events and irregular patterns of precipitation and temperature, are increasingly disrupting agricultural systems, particularly in climate-vulnerable regions such as Somalia. This study examines the effectiveness of Early Warning-Based Anticipatory Actions (EWBAA), an initiative implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in Somalia. EWBAA provides preemptive cash transfers to vulnerable households in high-risk areas ahead of predicted climate shocks, empowering communities to proactively manage risks and reduce potential losses.

This study takes advantage of a cluster-stratified random trial design implemented across two drought-prone districts in Somalia. The research aims to investigate how variations in the timing and structure of payments affect beneficiaries’ food security and likelihood of displacement. The findings will offer critical insights into the most effective modalities for anticipatory actions that enhance household resilience and coping mechanisms. By bridging humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding efforts, this research seeks to inform future programming and the potential scaling of interventions.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Burrone, Sara, Kamran Khan Niazi and Antonio Scognamillo. 2025. "Evaluating the effectiveness of Early Warning Based Anticipatory Action to mitigate adverse effects of droughts in Somalia ." AEA RCT Registry. February 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15065-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

The intervention takes advantage of a randomly assigned variation in the payment structure of the cash transfers distributed prior to the harvest of an exceptionally dry agricultural season. Beneficiaries in the treatment group received the full amount of the transfer as a one-time lump-sum payment, whereas those in the control group received the same total amount distributed in three equal installments over three months. The treatment assignment was stratified at the district level and subsequently clustered at the village level to improve balance and, at the same time, prevent potential spillovers and social tensions between beneficiaries located in the same village.

Intervention Start Date

2024-10-27

Intervention End Date

2025-01-10

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

Food Consumption Score (FCS) (discrete variable)
Probability of displacement (discrete variable)

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Based on previous literature in the domain and planned interventions, food security will be the most important outcome of this intervention. Within food security, we are looking at Food Consumption Score (FCS) - a composite index based on households’ dietary diversity, food consumption frequency, and relative nutritional value of different food groups. The FCS is calculated by asking how often households consume food items from the 8 different food groups (plus condiments) during a 7-day reference period.  In addition to this, the FCS module collects data on sources of the consumed foods acquired by households.

Literature also shows that receiving anticipatory action before the disaster occurs can reduce the probability of displacement.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Livestock losses
Assets
Wealth Index
rCSI

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Literature shows negative shocks can impact all material conditions of a household. We expect anticipatory action cash transfer to mitigate these adverse impact on assets. The impact of selling assets during shocks has two-fold impact, 1) loss of assets and 2) since everyone sells at the same time, the selling price is also compromised.

Wealth Index provides a composite index on all the assets available with the HH.

We are also looking at reduced coping strategy index (rCSI), an indicator used to compare the hardship faced by households due to a shortage of food. The index measures the frequency and severity of the food consumption behaviours the households had to engage in due to food shortage in the 7 days prior to the survey.

The study is conducted across three drought-prone districts in Somalia, employing a village-level randomization approach.

Experimental Design

A cluster-stratified randomized controlled design was used to evaluate the effectiveness of different payment structures within the framework of Early Warning-Based Anticipatory Action (EWBAA). Beneficiaries located in villages targeted by the FAO Joint Drought Recovery and Resilience Project (JDRRP) program were cluster-assigned to either a lump-sum or a three-instalment payment structure. Specifically, within each village considered, only households that met the vulnerability criteria established by the FAO Country Office for JDRRP targeting were included in the beneficiary group. All eligible households in the treatment and control villages received an anticipatory action cash transfer, either in the form of a lump sum or in three instalments over approximately three months. At baseline, all the villages considered were classified as drought-prone, and the cash transfers were triggered based on vulnerability assessments conducted according to a predefined protocol implemented at the beginning of the agricultural season.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

The modality of the cash transfer has been assigned following a cluster-stratified randomization at village levels with districts serving as the strata. All eligible households within the villages received the cash transfer. Randomization was done through a statistical software.

Randomization Unit

Village

Was the treatment clustered?

Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

9 villages

Sample size: planned number of observations

783 HHs

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

5 control villages (approximately 317 HHs)
4 treatment villages (approximately 466 HHs)

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

FCS discrete (21): MDE = 0.138, Control mean: 0.931 (0.253) Probability of displacement: MDE = 0.068, Control mean: 0.971 (0.165)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name

IRB Approval Date

IRB Approval Number

Analysis Plan