Households’ Inflation Expectations Under Supply Constraints

Last registered on February 12, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Households’ Inflation Expectations Under Supply Constraints
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015110
Initial registration date
February 07, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 12, 2025, 10:09 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Dzung Bui
Affiliation
University of Marburg
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Bernd Hayo
PI Affiliation
Philipps University of Marburg
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-02-15
End date
2025-03-03
Keywords
Behavior, Other
Additional Keywords
individual inflation expectations, supply constraints
JEL code(s)
D12, D83, D84, H31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian-Ukrainian war caused major disruptions in global supply chains and contributed to the hike in inflation in 2021-2023. Employing a specially designed representative household survey in Germany, we examine the impact of supply shortages on households’ inflation expectations. Against the backdrop of the real-world experience mentioned above, we conduct survey experiments based on hypothetical supply shortage scenarios. Within this survey of 2000 respondents, we would like to provide scenarios about the hypothetical supply conditions in the near future. Participants are randomly allocated to three groups (normal supply condition, temporary shortages of supply, prolonged shortages of supply).

Hypothesis 1: A situation of supply shortages increases people’s inflation expectations.
Hypothesis 2: A prolonged supply shortage has a larger effect on inflation expectations than a temporary one.
Hypothesis 3: People with more experience of a supply shortage will react less strongly than those with less experience.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bui, Dzung and Bernd Hayo. 2025. "Households’ Inflation Expectations Under Supply Constraints." AEA RCT Registry. February 12. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15110-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants are randomly assigned to three groups: treatment group 1 (temporary supply shortages), treatment group 2 (prolonged supply shortages), and control group (no supply shortages). Participants in all treatment groups receive some information about the supply shortage in Germany in 2022 and are exposed to texts potentially relevant hypothetical situations of ((i) no or (ii) temporary or (iii) prolonged) supply shortages.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-02-15
Intervention End Date
2025-03-03

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Expectations for the official inflation rates and personal inflation rates
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We are planning four experimental stages:
Stage 1: Baseline. Participants will receive an online questionnaire. All participants will be asked to indicate their expectations for the next year in terms of their personal inflation, i.e. the rate at which they themselves perceive prices to be changing, and the official inflation, i.e. the relative rate of change in the consumer price index.
Stage 2: Randomisation.
Stage 3: Intervention.
Stage 4: Endline. We collect households updated inflation expectations under the assumption that the scenario will happen.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomisation by computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
2000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
500 individuals in control group, 750 individuals in each treatment group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials