War Progress, Identity, and Democracy Support in Ukraine

Last registered on January 10, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
War Progress, Identity, and Democracy Support in Ukraine
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015131
Initial registration date
January 07, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 10, 2025, 1:12 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Henry Hale
Affiliation
George Washington University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Volodymyr Kulyk
PI Affiliation
Kyiv School of Economics
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PI Name
Olga Onuch
PI Affiliation
University of Manchester
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PI Name
Sasse Gwendolyn
PI Affiliation
Humboldt University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2024-11-23
End date
2025-12-31
Keywords
Behavior, Crime, Violence, & Conflict
Additional Keywords
war, identity, ethnicity, political support, democracy
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study employs a randomized controlled trial (RCT) in order to improve our understanding of how protracted all-out war influences understandings of identity and political attitudes in a country that is the victim of aggression.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Gwendolyn, Sasse et al. 2025. "War Progress, Identity, and Democracy Support in Ukraine." AEA RCT Registry. January 10. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15131-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
This study includes one RCT.
Intervention Start Date
2024-11-23
Intervention End Date
2025-01-10

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes of interest are four questions: two capturing dimensions of ethnic identity, one capturing trust in the incumbent president, and one capturing support for democracy.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The outcomes of primary interest are the differences, on each outcome question, between the groups receiving the two war treatments.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The experiment is embedded in a stand-alone telephone (CATI) survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization in the assignment of respondents to control and treatment groups is achieved through the randomization function in KIIS’s survey software.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
Approximately 1000 adult residents of Ukraine
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 333 in each of three randomly assigned groups
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University Research Ethics Committee, University of Manchester
IRB Approval Date
2024-10-28
IRB Approval Number
2024-7923-37805
Analysis Plan

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