Preferences and competing models

Last registered on January 15, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Preferences and competing models
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015136
Initial registration date
January 08, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 15, 2025, 5:21 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Purdue University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-01-20
End date
2027-05-07
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
People are often exposed to multiple narratives or models that interpret the same observation, many of which may conflict. At the same time, people usually hold intrinsic preferences about the states of the world. In this experiment, I aim to first understand how people form and update their beliefs when exposed to competing models. Furthermore, I aim to explore how agents’ preferences for certain world states influence their model selection and belief-updating process in the presence of competing models.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
QIAO, ZHONGHENG. 2025. "Preferences and competing models." AEA RCT Registry. January 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15136-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Subjects' induced preferences over the states of the world will be varied across treatments in a within-subject design. This includes a no-induced preference baseline treatment and an induced preference treatment.
Intervention Start Date
2025-01-20
Intervention End Date
2027-05-07

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
First-order beliefs: In the experiments, I plan to elicit subjects' first-order beliefs about the true state of the world, after observing a signal.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Cognitive ability
Risk attitudes
Overconfidence
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This is a laboratory experiment, conducted in a standard university experimental economics lab, recruiting students broadly across the university by email using ORSEE.

The experiment consists of two blocks individual belief updating tasks, a cognitive ability test, an overconfidence, a lottery selection task, and a survey. The two blocks of belief updating tasks consist of one block for each of the within-subject treatments. The order of the two blocks is randomized at the session level. Subjects also complete a paid instructions comprehension quiz before beginning their session.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is done by computer (signal realizations) and coin flip (the order of blocks).
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
200 subjects, each subject is a cluster.
Sample size: planned number of observations
I plan to collect data from about 200 subjects. Each subject will make multiple decisions in the experiment.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
The treatments are applied in a within-subject design.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
The Purdue University Human Research Protection Program
IRB Approval Date
2024-12-12
IRB Approval Number
IRB-2024-1786