Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve

Last registered on January 13, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015158
Initial registration date
January 12, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 13, 2025, 2:04 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
January 13, 2025, 3:40 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Chicago
PI Affiliation
University of Illinois Urbana Champaign

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-01-20
End date
2025-01-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This trial studies US consumers' perceptions of the Fed and how these perceptions shape their macroeconomic expectations.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Kuang, Pei, Michael Weber and Shihan Xie. 2025. "Perceived Political Bias of the Federal Reserve." AEA RCT Registry. January 13. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15158-1.1
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Respondents will be randomly assigned into one of the following groups:
T0: no information (control group)
T1: provide information on the institutional background of the Fed, including the appointment structure of governors of the Federal Reserve Board and political affiliations of FOMC committee members.
T2: provide information that communicates the objectives of the Fed.
T3: provide information that communicates performance of the Fed in post-COVID era.
Intervention Start Date
2025-01-20
Intervention End Date
2025-01-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
macroeconomic expectations, perceived independence of and trust in the Federal Reserve
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The survey starts with a screener question on whether respondents have participated in surveys on a range of topics. We then ask questions on individual backgrounds, such as geographic location, income, education, age, and gender. We solicit participants’ own political leaning and perceived political leaning of the US Federal Reserve followed by an open-ended question. We also elicit respondents’ perceptions and expectations of macroeconomic variables.

Respondents will be randomly assigned into a control group or one of treatment groups which is provided with information about the Federal Reserve.

Finally, respondents will be provided with a piece of article curated from the most recent FOMC statement. We examine how participants update their macroeconomic expectations after receiving the information on the projection of economic conditions from the Fed.

In a follow-up survey, we solicit respondents' perceived political leaning or independence of the Fed and trust in the Fed.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomisation by a computer
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
n/a
Sample size: planned number of observations
approx. 5,000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
approx. 4,000
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Birmingham
IRB Approval Date
2025-01-02
IRB Approval Number
ERN_3664

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials