Market-Driven Social Cohesion in a Diverse African City

Last registered on February 17, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Market-Driven Social Cohesion in a Diverse African City
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015349
Initial registration date
February 07, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 17, 2025, 8:21 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Shunsuke Tsuda
Affiliation
University of Essex
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Tomohiro Hara
PI Affiliation
Musashi University
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PI Name
Soyoka Okamura
PI Affiliation
The University of Tokyo
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PI Name
Yuko Shem Okoth
PI Affiliation
University of Nairobi
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-01-13
End date
2026-09-30
Keywords
Crime, Violence, & Conflict, Firms & Productivity, Labor
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study examines how market and non-market forces can simultaneously improve market efficiency and foster coexistence between ethnic and religious groups in tension. Focusing on culturally segregated, high-risk communities in Nairobi, where tensions exist between Christians and Muslims, we explore whether market forces alone can enhance peaceful intergroup relationships or if direct non-market interventions are needed to break initial barriers. Using occupation-specific vocational training, we create new market opportunities and foster intergroup contact. We assess the short- and medium-term impacts on economic, social, and psychological outcomes related to intergroup relations and the likelihood of marginalized youths engaging in high-risk activities.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hara, Tomohiro et al. 2025. "Market-Driven Social Cohesion in a Diverse African City." AEA RCT Registry. February 17. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15349-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2025-02-10
Intervention End Date
2026-02-27

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Primary outcome variables include:
- Market transactions with outgroups
- Intergroup relationships, including attitude toward and interactions with outgroups
- High-risk activities
Please see the attached pre-analysis plan for more details.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We randomly divide the study population from multiple fragile communities in Nairobi into a control group and two treatment groups, T1 and T2. For the populations in T1, we provide new market opportunities, consisting of two components. First, we offer occupation-specific skill training, along with general business skill training. Second, during the training, we provide detailed market information in Nairobi based on extensive market research. In this treatment group, participants attend the training sessions where all participants share the same religion.

For the populations in T2, in addition to the new market opportunities provided in T1, we provide the opportunity for non-market intergroup interactions. Specifically, a mixed group of populations receives the training program in the same room. In this group, Christians and Muslims participate in the training together in the same room. Christians primarily come from Mathare or Kiamaiko, while Muslims are mostly from Eastleigh or Majengo.

Each training session spans ten weekdays over two weeks with 20 participants. Participants in each T1 session either are 20 Christians or 20 Muslims. Participants in each T2 session consist of 10 Christians and 10 Muslims. The training program will run for one year, with a total of 36 sessions. In total, 320 individuals will participate in training sessions where all participants share the same religion, while 400 individuals will participate in sessions that include both Muslims and Christians. Assuming that two-thirds of the invited individuals actually enroll in the training, the final sample will consist of approximately 480 individuals in T1, 600 individuals in T2, and 600 individuals in the control group (C). Depending on the complience rate, the number of T1 and T2 may change.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer, using STATA.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomization is at the individual level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
The treatment itself is not clustered, but the clusters stem from the sampling process involving referrals. Approximately there are 500-1000 clusters (referral trees), though the precise number is not exactly determined ex-ante.
Sample size: planned number of observations
1680 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 480 inddividuals in T1, 600 individuals in T2, and 600 individuals in C.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Essex
IRB Approval Date
2024-05-02
IRB Approval Number
ETH2324-1250
Analysis Plan

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