Natural Disasters Assistance: Beliefs, Preferences, and Impacts

Last registered on February 25, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Natural Disasters Assistance: Beliefs, Preferences, and Impacts
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015351
Initial registration date
February 21, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 25, 2025, 10:31 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Xuesong You
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Frances Moore
PI Affiliation
University of California, Davis
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Joakim Weill
PI Affiliation
Federal Reserve Board
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Indumati Roychowdhury
PI Affiliation
University of California, Davis
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-02-24
End date
2026-02-24
Keywords
Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
Climate Adaptation, Environmental Economics
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We investigate homeowners’ beliefs and preferences regarding government-provided post-disaster assistance, and whether those beliefs interact with risk-reducing behavior and disaster insurance demand. Public emergency assistance exists on a continuum: for truly rare and unprecedented events, public emergency assistance can alleviate the welfare costs of disasters with only limited effect on individual investments in risk reduction. For more “regular” disasters though, the existence (or even perception of) widespread post-disaster assistance risks crowding out private investments in climate adaptation. We first study what people believe about the current level of disaster assistance. In an experimental setting, we then study if providing accurate information on the magnitude of Federal disaster assistance affects the willingness to pay for flood insurance. Finally, we investigate preferences for post-disaster assistance based on prior risk knowledge, ex-ante individual actions, and financial wealth.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Moore, Frances et al. 2025. "Natural Disasters Assistance: Beliefs, Preferences, and Impacts." AEA RCT Registry. February 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15351-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We will run an online survey and recruit participants through CloudResearch’s Prime Panels to ensure that our sample is representative of the regional population in the entire US along key dimensions such as income, race, and age. In addition, to be eligible for the survey, participants must be over 18 years old, involved in the financial decisions of their household, and own their current home. We aim to collect a final sample of 2,000 respondents, with half having experienced a disaster within the past ten years and the other half having no such experience.
Intervention Start Date
2025-02-24
Intervention End Date
2025-06-24

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Beliefs about federal post-disaster assistance, willingness to pay for flood insurance, preferences for post-disaster assistance
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Beliefs about federal post-disaster assistance are captured by responses to the following types of questions: If your home has just flooded and suffered $75,000 uninsured damage, what is your expected time needed, amount, and probability of receiving a grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)? Additionally, what is the maximum loan amount you would consider borrowing from the Small Business Administration (SBA) disaster loan program, along with the expected time needed and the probability of receiving that loan?
After collecting the participants' responses, we will compare their answers with actual statistics based on our analysis of federal disaster assistance provided in the past. We will then evaluate the extent to which they under- or overestimate the magnitude of federal disaster assistance available.
Each participant will be asked about the maximum dollar amount they are willing to pay for a full-coverage flood insurance policy for a hypothetical home. This home has a 1-in-4 chance of flooding over the next 30 years, and the average flood damage is estimated to be $75,000.
​​Preferences for federal disaster assistance will be captured by answers to a general question regarding the extent to which participants agree that government taxes should be used to provide support after disasters. Additionally, participants will evaluate two hypothetical scenarios involving homeowners who experience disaster-related property damage. These scenarios will differ based on the homeowner's prior disaster experiences, the individual actions taken before the disaster, and their financial wealth. For each scenario, participants will respond to three questions: 1) To what extent is the hypothetical individual responsible for the loss? 2) Should the government use taxes to compensate for the loss if the individual is uninsured? 3) If so, how much government assistance should be provided?

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
In the surveys, we collect detailed information on participants' prior disaster experiences (if any), their beliefs regarding the current level of federal disaster assistance during natural disasters, their willingness to pay for flood insurance, their preferences regarding federal disaster assistance and related policies, and their home and household demographic characteristics. We conduct a randomized experimental treatment, in which participants are randomly assigned to either an information treatment group or a control group. Participants in the treatment group will be shown historical statistics related to federal disaster assistance, while those in the control group will not be presented with such information.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Respondents are randomly assigned to control and treatment groups using a survey tool provided by Qualtrics.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Not applicable
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,000 respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1,000 respondents in the control group; 1,000 respondents in the treatment group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UC Davis IRB Administration, Davis, CA
IRB Approval Date
2024-12-20
IRB Approval Number
2247670-1
Analysis Plan

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