Beliefs about choice reversals

Last registered on April 14, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Beliefs about choice reversals
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015407
Initial registration date
February 22, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 25, 2025, 10:37 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
April 14, 2025, 5:48 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Alexander Coutts
Affiliation
York University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Séverine Toussaert
PI Affiliation
University of Oxford
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-04-15
End date
2026-04-14
Keywords
Lab
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We conduct an online experiment examining how individuals anticipate and make future effort decisions. Participants choose a target level of work for the following week and, when that week arrives, make the choice again in real time. In addition to eliciting standard point predictions of future effort, we also measure participants’ full probability distributions to capture their uncertainty about their own behavior. They further customize future decision menus—adding or removing options at a small cost—to reveal demand for commitment or flexibility. A separate control treatment omits belief elicitation, allowing us to test whether explicitly forming beliefs affects subsequent choices. Finally, researchers are invited to predict our experimental outcomes in advance, enabling a comparison of predicted vs. observed behaviors.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Coutts, Alexander and Séverine Toussaert. 2025. "Beliefs about choice reversals." AEA RCT Registry. April 14. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15407-2.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2025-04-15
Intervention End Date
2025-05-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our primary outcomes are actual choice reversals, measured as difference between week 1 and 2 effort; anticipated choice reversals, measured as the difference between week 1 effort and week 1 beliefs about week 2 effort (point predictions and full distribution); demand for commitment defined as removing at least one effort level from one's screen; demand for flexibility defined as adding at least one effort level to one's screen on top of compulsory option; belief uncertainty measured as support size and normalized entropy of belief distribution. Our pre-analysis plan document fully specifies all outcomes and specifications.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Our pre-analysis plan document provides full details about the construction of all outcome variables.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This study is an online experiment examining choices at different points in time, by having participants initially decide how many “slider task” screens they will complete one week later, then giving them the same choice again at that later time. At time 1, participants select an effort level from a discrete menu of 10 options (each associated with a payment), and at time 2 they make a second, immediate choice. We elicit participants’ full probability distribution over their own future effort decisions. Participants also customize their future choice set—either starting from a blank menu and paying for each added option (“flexibility”) or removing options from the full menu at a cost (“commitment”). A treatment without belief elicitation serves as a control to test for potential impacts of explicitly considering uncertainty.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is done within the Qualtrics survey platform.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
1000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
700 individuals in the main treatment, 300 individuals in the no-prediction treatment.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Oxford Departmental Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2023-10-13
IRB Approval Number
ECONCIA20-21-22
Analysis Plan

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