Power-ups in NPG region: evaluating the impact of offering free electricity

Last registered on March 13, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Power-ups in NPG region: evaluating the impact of offering free electricity
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015455
Initial registration date
March 05, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 13, 2025, 8:17 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Region
North East, Yorkshire, and Northern Lincolnshire regions of England

Primary Investigator

Name
Andrew Schein
Affiliation
Centre for Net Zero
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-01-29
End date
2025-03-31
Keywords
Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The UK is undergoing a significant transformation in electricity generation. The Government’s Clean Power Action Plan is designed to accelerate this, aiming for 80% renewable energy penetration by 2030. Achieving this goal requires substantial expansion in onshore and offshore wind, as well as solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity, more than doubling current levels. The increasing share of renewable energy is leading to periods where supply exceeds demand, causing negative wholesale electricity prices and rising curtailment costs, which reached nearly £1 billion in 2023 and are projected to triple by 2030. Negative pricing events, particularly during windy and sunny periods, have surged in Great Britain, with occurrences increasing seven-fold between 2022 and 2024. These trends are exacerbated by price-insensitive generation under legacy support schemes and rising electricity imports, which are expected to contribute to over 1,000 hours of negative pricing by 2027.

Rather than solely relying on infrastructure build out, flexible consumer demand can be harnessed to help manage stability, while enabling customers to materially benefit from programs. As such, Octopus Energy (OE) has introduced the Power-ups program, which offers customers free or discounted electricity during periods when their Distribution Network Operator (DNO) requires increased demand. Centre for Net Zero (CNZ) will conduct an RCT to evaluate the impact of a part of the Power-ups program in two small areas of Northern England. See analysis plan for details.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Schein, Andrew. 2025. "Power-ups in NPG region: evaluating the impact of offering free electricity." AEA RCT Registry. March 13. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15455-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
See analysis plan.
Intervention Start Date
2025-01-29
Intervention End Date
2025-03-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Electricity consumption (import and export) at the half hourly level during Power-up events in kWh
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Consumption is measured at the customer meter point level.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Daily overall electricity consumption (kWh) on Power-up event days
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Consumption is measured at the customer meter point level.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
See analysis plan.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomisation is via a Python script – see analysis plan for more details.
Randomization Unit
Customer Meter Point Administration Number (MPAN)
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
14,477 MPANs in the two NPG service areas:
Sample size: planned number of observations
Maximum 42,388,656 half hourly meter readings in between January 29th 2025 and March 31st 2025 for all MPANs in the region. This will be filtered down to half hourly meter readings only during the times when NPG requests Power-ups, which are not defined in advance (as explained in the pre-analysis plan).
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
In Area 1, of 9,000 signed up customers, 2400 will be invited (treatment) to each event.
In Area 2, of 5,477 signed up customers, 1857 will be invited (treatment) to each event.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
See analysis plan for detaisl. ITT: 4.75% for Area 2 and 3.95% for Area 1 (of typical hourly consumption). LATE (assuming 75% compliance): 6.32% and 5.27% of typical hourly consumption.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

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