Inflation Reduction Act and Labor Market Outlooks

We designed a multi-layered information treatment based on the eligibility of respondents' locations for IRA tax credits. The first layer provides a national treatment, which presents information about general tax incentives under the IRA. This treatment is administered to all respondents assigned to a treatment group, regardless of whether their location has ever qualified for the local IRA tax credits.

For respondents residing in locations that have previously qualified for IRA tax credits, we introduce a second layer of place-based policy that provides localized information about specific tax credits available in their area.

Since IRA eligibility status may fluctuate over time depending on the current local unemployment rate. We introduce an additional treatment layer for eligible areas, informing respondents that future qualification depends on evolving local economic conditions. This is our uncertainty treatment.

For respondents in areas that have never met the fossil fuel employment threshold and, therefore, are ineligible for the local IRA tax credit, we introduce a modified second-layer treatment to assess potential spillover effects. While these areas do not receive local IRA benefits, they remain eligible for national tax incentives.

2024-09-01

2024-11-30

household labor market outlooks, including city-level and auto-industry-level wage expectations, own wage growth expectations, probability of staying in current job, quitting, as well as job search activities.

The survey begins by eliciting respondents' views on climate change and their political leanings. Next, we elicit respondents' labor market outlooks. It begins by identifying their current labor market status, including whether they are employed, and if not, whether they are actively searching for jobs, or not currently in the labor force. The next part of this section examines expectations about labor market conditions at both the individual and national levels. All respondents are asked about their expectations for key economic indicators, such as income growth in the city and the auto sector in general. Employed individuals are asked about job security, career growth prospects, and anticipated changes in their current employment situation. Unemployed individuals report their outlook on job-finding probabilities and expected wages. Individuals who are currently out of the labor force report whether they plan to enter the workforce in the near future and whether they intend to pursue training or skill development.

Respondents then proceed to the information treatment stage. Before exposure to any information treatment, assess their existing knowledge and opinions regarding the IRA. They are then randomly assigned to either a control or treatment group, with assignment to treatment groups determined in part by whether they live in eligible areas. The control group receives no additional information, while treatment groups receive varying levels of information about national and place-based IRA policies. After the treatment, respondents provide their thoughts on the IRA's potential impact on their personal circumstances, their local economy, and the national economy. Additionally, employed respondents are asked whether they expect to observe any IRA-related changes in their workplace.

To measure the effect of the treatment, respondents then revisit the labor market outlook questions, with wording adjustments designed to mitigate experimenter demand effects. This pre- and post-treatment design allows us to assess how exposure to IRA-related information affects respondents' subjective assessments of labor market conditions.

After that, we gather information on respondents' industries and occupations, providing further context for their labor market perspectives. We then collect demographic details, including geographic location, income, education, age, and gender. To gauge potential shifts in attitudes after the information treatment, this section also includes a follow-up question on respondents' perceptions of climate change policies.

randomization done in office by a computer

we randomize among individuals within the IRA eligible areas, and within IRA non-eligible areas

No

not applicable

9,000 individuals

1,500