Primary Outcomes (explanation)
1. Subjective Probability of getting married in 10 years (B_US1 and B_Mex1). This is an ordinal variable with values 1 through 5. We will look at the distribution of this variable under the Mexico scenario, and create a binary outcome that is either “Extremely likely”, or if the proportion saying extremely likely is less than 25%, “Extremely likely”or “likely”. We will also look at the impact on the ordinal variable (coded 1 through 5).
2. Unable to say what characteristics of future spouse will be. This is the sum of the unable to say responses for B_Mex2, B_Mex3 and B_Mex4 for the in Mexico case, and of B_Us2, B_Us3, and B_Us4 for the U.S. case – measuring unsureness about the age, place of birth, and education of the spouse. We will also look at the unable to say response separately for each of the three spouse characteristics: age, education and place of birth.
3. Hard to picture other characteristics of future spouse. This is an ordinal variable ranging from 1 = very uncertain to 5 = certain, asked in B_Mex5 and B_US5. We will use this as an ordinal variable, but also look at the impact on the binary variable “very uncertain”. If the proportion of the latter is less than 25%, we will also look at the binary variable taking one if “very uncertain” or “uncertain”.
Descriptive direct responses:
1. Direct response on whether it is harder to picture the spouse if they migrate: proportion answering B9 = 3 (no regression).
2. Direct responses on whether marriage is important in the migration decision:
a. Absolute terms: Based on Outcome C4_4 (how important is marriage)
b. Relative terms: Comparing the proportion who say Outcome C4_4 is very important or important (3 or 4), to those saying this for wages, legal status, and career prospects.