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Field
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
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Before
Evenly for non-lender-aligned and for lender-aligned for main arm. 1000 each.
3/4 will be in the arms where they choose whether or not to see the explanation: Same shares for a variant of the main arm where race-gender descriptors for borrowers are replaced by odd/even number birth-day/month. (total 1500 across these arms)
1/4 as much as above, but within this even between non-lender-aligned and lender-aligned for an arm similar to main arm except that participants have a choice to see the predicted default risk generated by AI or not. These participants will be randomized to see an explanation. (total 500)
2000 in total.
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After
Evenly for non-lender-aligned and for lender-aligned for main arm. 1250 each.
4/5 will be in the arms where they choose whether or not to see the explanation: Same shares for a variant of the main arm where race-gender descriptors for borrowers are replaced by odd/even number birth-day/month. (total 2000 across these arms)
1/5 as much as above, but within this even between non-lender-aligned and lender-aligned for an arm similar to main arm except that participants have a choice to see the predicted default risk generated by AI or not. These participants will be randomized to see an explanation. (total 500)
2500 in total.
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Field
Intervention (Hidden)
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Before
2X3X5X3 design
2: neutral treatment where payoffs are not tied to actual loan repayment outcome, or a "lender-aligned" treatment where they have with direct stakes tied to loan repayment
3: race-gender of prospective borrowers revealed to be different AND no decision to choose whether to see predicted default risk or not, race-gender of prospective borrowers NOT revealed AND no decision to choose whether to see predicted default risk or not, race-gender of prospective borrowers revealed to be different AND with decision to choose whether to see predicted default risk or not
5: always see explanation of AI, never see explanation of AI, option to see explanation of AI with no salience, option to see explanation of AI with hint that financial factors might be used by AI, option to see explanation of AI with hint that financial factors and demographics might be used by AI
3: 3 versions of explanation for those who see or chose to see explanation. One vague description of how neural network AI risk prediction works, one that plus a SHAP interpretation of why the high risk borrower was deemed as such just based on financials, one that plus a SHAP interpretation of why the high risk borrower was deemed as such just based on financials AND race and gender
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After
2X3X5X3 design
2: neutral treatment where payoffs are not tied to actual loan repayment outcome, or a "lender-aligned" treatment where they have with direct stakes tied to loan repayment
3: race-gender of prospective borrowers revealed to be different AND no decision to choose whether to see predicted default risk or not, race-gender of prospective borrowers NOT revealed AND no decision to choose whether to see predicted default risk or not, race-gender of prospective borrowers revealed to be different AND with decision to choose whether to see predicted default risk or not (*** the cost to see information in any arm is $0.01)
5: always see explanation of AI, never see explanation of AI, option to see explanation of AI with no salience, option to see explanation of AI with hint that financial factors might be used by AI, option to see explanation of AI with hint that financial factors and demographics might be used by AI
3: 3 versions of explanation for those who see or chose to see explanation. One vague description of how neural network AI risk prediction works, one that plus a SHAP interpretation of why the high risk borrower was deemed as such just based on financials, one that plus a SHAP interpretation of why the high risk borrower was deemed as such just based on financials AND race and gender
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