The Policy-Trust-Compliance Cycle: Experimental Evidence

Last registered on March 26, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Policy-Trust-Compliance Cycle: Experimental Evidence
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015608
Initial registration date
March 20, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 26, 2025, 8:54 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
March 26, 2025, 9:36 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
Japan
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Shusaku Sasaki
Affiliation
The University of Osaka
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Hidetoki Nakayama
PI Affiliation
The University of Osaka
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-03-21
End date
2028-03-31
Keywords
Behavior, Governance, Health
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The objective of this study is to determine whether the implementation of appropriate government policies enhances citizens' trust in the government and, in turn, whether this increased trust strengthens citizens' support for and compliance with policies.

Previous studies have consistently reported that higher trust in the government is associated with greater policy support and compliance among citizens. In addition, our research team【1】has provided empirical evidence of the reverse causal relationship, demonstrating that the implementation of appropriate policies by the government also increases citizens' trust in the government.

In this study, we experimentally examine whether the following cycle occurs: (1) the implementation of appropriate policies leads to (2) an increase in trust, which subsequently results in (3) greater policy support and compliance.

[1] Nakayama, H., Sasaki, S., Saito, T., and Ohtake, F. "From Policy to Trust: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis," Osaka University CiDER Discussion Paper, No. 007, November 2024.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Sasaki, Shusaku and Hidetoki Nakayama. 2025. "The Policy-Trust-Compliance Cycle: Experimental Evidence." AEA RCT Registry. March 26. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15608-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Treatment group: Participants will be exposed to a fact-based message created by the research team, highlighting the Japanese government's role in the successful COVID-19 vaccination rollout. After reading the information treatment, participants will answer a comprehension check to assess whether they understand the content of the treatment message.

Control group: No information will be provided.
Intervention Start Date
2025-03-21
Intervention End Date
2025-03-28

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1) Trust in Government: Theree elements of Benevolence, Honesty, and Competence measured based on the study of Grimmelikhuijsen (2012). Each element is 5-point scaled. We will use the average of the three elements for one primary outcome.

2) Donation Behavior: Continuous outcome (0 to 100 JPY donated).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
1) Trust in Government in each of the three elements.

2) Trust in Politicians: Measured in the same manner as the primary trust.

3) Trust in Bureaucrats: Measured in the same manner as the primary trust.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) via an online survey to investigate whether awareness of government performance enhances people's trust in the government and their prosocial behavior toward government-led initiatives. Participants will be recruited through an online survey company and randomly assigned to either a control or treatment group. The survey includes questions on prior beliefs, an information treatment, posterior beliefs, a real donation task, demographic and behavioral characteristics.

Please see the file of "Pre-Analysis Plan" for the details.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization stratified by age, gender, and area of residence.
Randomization Unit
individuals
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Control: 1,000 individuals
Treatment: 1,000 individuals
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
I used StataNow18.5 to perform a power analysis. Our goal was to have 0.80 power to detect a delta of 0.2228 with a standard deviation of 1.0160 at an alpha error probability of 0.050. The delta and standard deviation were based on the results of our pilot experiment. The estimated sample size for each group is 439. I consider the possibility of conducting subsample analyses and set the sample size for each group to 1,000.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Center for Infectious Disease Education and Research, The University of Osaka IRB
IRB Approval Date
2025-03-05
IRB Approval Number
2024CRER0305
Analysis Plan

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