Lost in Translation? The Impact of Fed Statements on Consumers

Last registered on April 03, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Lost in Translation? The Impact of Fed Statements on Consumers
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015609
Initial registration date
March 27, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 03, 2025, 11:06 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Tiziana Assenza
Affiliation
Toulouse School of Economics
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Fabrice Collard
PI Affiliation
Toulouse School of Economics
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Dogukan Guney
PI Affiliation
Toulouse School of Economics
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-04-06
End date
2026-04-15
Keywords
Behavior, Other
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We will investigate how individuals’ economic decisions, such as spending and saving habits and expectations about inflation and unemployment, react to the complexity of a central bank's communication.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Assenza, Tiziana, Fabrice Collard and Dogukan Guney. 2025. "Lost in Translation? The Impact of Fed Statements on Consumers." AEA RCT Registry. April 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15609-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We will conduct an online (experimental) survey with a representative sample of the U.S. population. The intervention is designed to measure the impact of central bank communication complexity on individuals’ decisions and behaviour.
Intervention (Hidden)
We will conduct an online (experimental) survey with a representative sample of the U.S. population. As part of the survey, we will collect standard demographic information (such as gender and age), personal details (including the family composition, such as number of kids and type of residence), professional background (such as education and employment status), and political opinions. The survey also includes an experimental component designed to measure the impact of central bank communication on individuals’ decisions and behavior. Participants will be presented with a central bank policy statement, and we will assess how their decisions (initially made before receiving the statement) are influenced by different degrees of complexity of this new information. The goal of our study is to understand how central bank communication can be tailored to better reach the general public.
Intervention Start Date
2025-04-15
Intervention End Date
2025-05-05

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Individuals' expectations on key economic variables and economic outlook, consumption/saving decisions
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Monetary policy communication is categorised according to some measures of complexity. Participants will be randomly assigned to either the control group or a treatment group. Treatment groups will receive monetary policy communication characterised by different degree of complexity.
Experimental Design Details
The policy statement presented to individuals is categorised based on two measures of text complexity: readability and information density. Readability is quantified using the Flesch-Kincaid grade level, while information density is measured by Shannon entropy.
To investigate how variations in this complexity measures influence individuals’ economic decisions and behavior, we will randomly divide participants into five groups: one control group and four treatment groups. Specifically:

Control group: Receives the original Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy statement, which has a specific level of complexity determined by its Flesch-Kincaid grade level and Shannon entropy.
Treatment group 1: Receives a reworded version of the original FOMC policy statement, where the Flesch-Kincaid grade level remains unchanged, but Shannon entropy is reduced by 25%. The core message of the statement remains the same.
Treatment group 2: Receives a reworded version of the original FOMC policy statement, where the Flesch-Kincaid grade level remains unchanged, but Shannon entropy is increased by 25%. The core message of the statement remains the same.
Treatment group 3: Receives a reworded version of the original FOMC policy statement, where the Flesch-Kincaid grade level is reduced by 25% (this implies that education required to understand the text passes from College to High School), while Shannon entropy remains the same as in the original version. The core message of the statement remains unchanged.
Treatment group 4: Receives a reworded version of the original FOMC policy statement, where both the Flesch-Kincaid grade level and Shannon entropy are reduced by 25%. The core message of the statement remains unchanged.
Randomization Method
The study will be conducted online, with Qualtrics responsible for administering the survey and collecting the data.
Randomization will be implemented through Qualtrics platform.
Randomization Unit
The unit of randomisation is the individual. Each participant is randomly assigned to either the control group or one of the treatment groups. We will implement a between design.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Not applicable.
Sample size: planned number of observations
About 4,200 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Each treatment arm will include about 850 individuals.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
TSE-IAST Review Board for Ethical Standards in Research
IRB Approval Date
2025-03-27
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials