Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample
design and clustering)
Our study sample was pre-defined to include only women on their first mandate, to focus on politically inexperienced candidates. Due to limited availability of CPF (tax code) data in 2024, we decided to take reelection rates in 2020 for women elected for the first time in 2016, to avoid errors in classification related to the missing tax code. Using reelection attempt and success rates between 2016 and 2020, we obtain:
Unit and outcomes: The unit of analysis is the candidate. The main outcomes are binary: (i) attempted reelection in 2020 and (ii) won reelection in 2020, defined for the cohort of women serving a first mandate in 2016 (N = 4,779).
Baseline rates and standard deviations: The baseline rate of attempting reelection is 0.597, with a standard deviation of 0.491. The baseline rate of winning reelection is 0.306, with a standard deviation of 0.461.
Sample design and clustering: Randomization is at the candidate level with stratification. Analyses will include strata fixed effects and cluster-robust standard errors at the stratification (subgroup) level. Power is computed using the realized sample sizes (83 treated, 348 controls), which reflect the stratified design and incorporate the effective group sizes after clustering.
Minimum detectable effect sizes (alpha = 0.05, power = 0.80): For attempting reelection, the minimum detectable difference is 15.7 percentage points (from 59.7 percent to 75.3 percent). For winning reelection, the minimum detectable difference is 16.7 percentage points (from 30.6 percent to 47.3 percent).
This means the study is powered to detect effects of roughly 16–17 percentage points on the main reelection outcomes.