Inflation Expectations and Family Formation and Dissolution

Last registered on May 15, 2025

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Inflation Expectations and Family Formation and Dissolution

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0015763

Initial registration date

April 29, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

April 30, 2025, 1:35 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated

May 15, 2025, 9:30 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country

Netherlands

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Serena Trucchi

Affiliation

Cardiff University

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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Berkay Özcan

PI Affiliation

NYU Abu Dhabi

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Concetta Rondinelli

PI Affiliation

Bank of Italy

Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status

On going

Start date

2025-04-07

End date

2026-05-31

Keywords

Behavior, Gender

Additional Keywords

Inflation Expectations, Fertility Intentions, Marriage

JEL code(s)

C83; D84; E31; J13.

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

This study investigates how information about inflation, both general and specific to child-rearing costs, affects fertility intentions and family formation and dissolution. Using a survey-based randomised information experiment, we elicit individuals’ expectations about future inflation and then provide a randomly selected subset of participants with factual data on recent price trends. We assess how this information influences inflation expectations, fertility intentions, ideal family size, and the perceived likelihood of marriage or divorce. Our findings contribute to the literature on economic uncertainty and demographic behaviour by highlighting the role of inflation expectations in shaping life-cycle decisions. In doing so, we provide new evidence on the channels through which macroeconomic conditions influence family formation.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Rondinelli, Concetta, Serena Trucchi and Berkay Özcan. 2025. "Inflation Expectations and Family Formation and Dissolution." AEA RCT Registry. May 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15763-1.2

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Individuals will be randomly assigned to different information treatment about inflation in the Netherlands.

Intervention (Hidden)

We will collect two waves of questionnaires, in April-May and May-June 2025.
In the second wave of the survey (May-June 2025), respondents will be randomly assigned to one of four groups: a control group or one of three treatment groups. The randomization is conducted automatically by the survey software upon entry to the questionnaire. The interventions consist of concise, factual information messages related to inflation.

Treatment 1 – General Inflation Information: Information on inflation in the Netherlands, published by Statistics Netherlands, is provided to respondents in this subgroup.

Treatment 2 – Inflation Information related to child-raising costs: We use the cost of childcare in the Netherlands as a measure for the child-raising costs, as official statistics on this subcomponent of inflation are published by Statistics Netherlands.

Treatment 3 – General + Child-Rearing Inflation: Respondents in this group receive both sets of information (both Treatment 1 and Treatment 2).

Control Group: Respondents in the control group will not receive any additional information.

Intervention Start Date

2025-05-05

Intervention End Date

2025-06-26

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

- Inflation expectations for the next 12 months (both about consumer prices in general and prices related to raising children);
- Fertility intentions in the short-run (12 months) and medium-run (3 years);
- If married or in a committed relationship: Probability of divorce and separation in the short-run (12 months) and medium-run (3 years);
- If not married or in a committed relationship: Probability of marriage or getting into a committed relationship (cohabitation).

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

- Perceived cost of raising a child;
- Macroeconomic conditions in the short-run (12 months) and medium-run (3 years);
- Intention to move to a larger house (long-term commitment);
- Norms and perceptions about ideal family size.

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Survey-based randomised information experiment.
We will first collect baseline data on individuals’ inflation perceptions and expectations and their prior about family formation and dissolution.
We will provide randomly selected subsets of respondents with publicly available information on recent inflation.
Finally, we will elicit posteriors about inflation and family formation and dissolution.

Experimental Design Details

This study uses a survey-based randomized information experiment to examine how inflation-related information affects individuals' expectations and family formation intentions. The design consists of two waves of data collection conducted in April and May 2025.

In Wave 1 (April-May), respondents are asked about their baseline expectations regarding general inflation and inflation in child-rearing costs, as well as their intentions related to fertility, marriage, and divorce. This wave establishes pre-treatment measures of perceptions, expectations and intentions.

In Wave 2 (May-June), respondents are randomly assigned—via the survey software at the start of the questionnaire—to one of four groups: a control group or one of three treatment groups. The three treatment groups receive factual information based on official statistics from Statistics Netherlands:

Treatment 1: General inflation trends;
Treatment 2: Inflation in child-rearing costs;
Treatment 3: Combined information on both general and child-related inflation;
Control group: No information provided.

After treatment, respondents are re-asked about their expectations and intentions.

Randomization Method

Randomisation will be implemented automatically by the survey software upon entering the questionnaire.

Randomization Unit

Individual

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

1,600 individuals

Sample size: planned number of observations

1,600 individuals

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

400 individuals

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

The experimental design comprises three treatment arms and one control group, resulting in four groups overall. The effect size is measured using Cohen’s f, which quantifies the minimum magnitude of between-group differences that can be detected with the given sample size, assuming a power of 80% and a significance level of 5%. Our sample size (1,600 individuals) allows us to estimate an effect of 16.6%, which is considered a small-to-moderate effect size using conventional effect size thresholds.

Supporting Documents and Materials

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