Preferences for Hazardous Fuel Treatments: Evidence from a Survey of Forest Service Personnel and the General Public

Last registered on April 17, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Preferences for Hazardous Fuel Treatments: Evidence from a Survey of Forest Service Personnel and the General Public
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015770
Initial registration date
April 08, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 17, 2025, 6:24 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Colorado State University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2025-03-19
End date
2025-04-03
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
In recent decades, the United States has experienced dangerous increases in the prevalence and severity of annual wildfire events. The management of hazardous fuels can mitigate the spread and severity of wildfire events by removing or reorganizing excess woody materials that could otherwise feed fires. However, recent wildfire severity has required a large portion of the United States Forest Service (USFS) budget to be allocated to suppression efforts each year at the expense of other budget categories, such as fuel treatments. This motivates the importance of using available resources in a way that maximizes social welfare, but it is unclear what allocation is considered optimal by relevant stakeholders. This research investigates the preferences of USFS employees and the public for hazardous fuel treatments. The primary objective of this work is to assess how these two groups would prefer a portion of the USFS wildfire management budget be allocated among fuel reduction activities. A secondary objective is to determine how allocation preferences are affected when budgetary changes are presented as a loss or a gain. To address these questions, surveys were administered to a sample of the public residing in Colorado and Utah, and to employees of the USFS. Respondents were asked to complete a budget allocation exercise as the primary mechanism for assessing their preferences. Ultimately, this research will help inform USFS management decisions by improving our understanding of each group’s preferences, as well as characteristics that may influence these preferences.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hoban, Danielle. 2025. "Preferences for Hazardous Fuel Treatments: Evidence from a Survey of Forest Service Personnel and the General Public ." AEA RCT Registry. April 17. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15770-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants will be asked to complete a budget allocation exercise. An informational treatment will be applied to the allocation exercise. Participants will be asked how they would allocate an additional $100 million between hazardous fuel treatment options or how they would decrease funding among the management options if $100 million were to be cut from the budget.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-03-19
Intervention End Date
2025-04-03

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcome of interest is the dollar value participants allocate to prescribed fire or mechanical treatments. This value will represent the budgetary preference of participants. It will be compared to a "status quo" value, which reflects previous spending by the USFS. Allocation preferences of each group will also be compared.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Two surveys were designed to address the research questions. The surveys follow a 2x2 between-subject design and were designed and will be administered through Qualtrics, an online survey platform. One survey will sample the general public residing in Colorado and Utah. A second survey will sample USFS personnel.Both surveys are comprised of questions that address the participant's experience with wildfire. The survey of USFS personnel focuses more on their professional experience, while the public will be asked about their personal experience. The primary mechanism for analysis in both surveys is a budget allocation exercise and will be the same for USFS personnel and the public. Participants will be asked to allocate a portion of the USFS hazardous fuels treatment budget between prescribed fire and mechanical treatments. Two treatments will be tested through the budget allocation exercise. In the "gain" treatment, participants will be asked how they would allocate an additional \$100 million in the USFS hazardous fuel budget among the management options. In the "loss" treatment, participants are asked how they would decrease funding among the management options if \$100 million were to be cut from the hazardous fuel management budget.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization was completed by Qualtrics.
Randomization Unit
Individual members of the public and USFS personnel
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
700 residents of Colorado or Utah. Number of USFS participants is currently unknown.
Sample size: planned number of observations
700 residents of Colorado or Utah. Number of USFS participants is currently unknown.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
350 in both public treatments. USFS participants will be split in half between treatments.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
See attached document.
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Pre-Analysis Plan

MD5: 5e711cf4ec023c034b1b944dc8dc2791

SHA1: dc07a5c3719488e5394c648dc06b29840cb9ef40

Uploaded At: April 08, 2025

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials