Social Media and Local Politics

Last registered on April 30, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Social Media and Local Politics
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015895
Initial registration date
April 28, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 30, 2025, 1:30 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Italy
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Roberto Bonfatti
Affiliation
University of Padua
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Duccio Gamannossi degl'Innocenti
PI Affiliation
University of Padua
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Peng Ge
PI Affiliation
University of Padua
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Edoardo Grillo
PI Affiliation
University of Padua
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PI Name
Orestis Troumpounis
PI Affiliation
Ca’ Foscari University of Venice
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-04-29
End date
2025-07-31
Keywords
Behavior, Electoral, Governance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Does citizens’ exposure to the social media content of either their mayor or their municipality influence their views on local politics and the mayor's popularity? To address this, we implement a two-wave survey experiment. In the first wave, a subset of individuals is randomly assigned to follow one of the two social media sources. In the second wave, we compare the views of these treated individuals on local politics to those of a control group.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bonfatti, Roberto et al. 2025. "Social Media and Local Politics." AEA RCT Registry. April 30. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15895-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We survey at least 1,800 individuals who are active social media users—defined as using social media almost daily—and who do not currently follow neither their mayor's nor their municipality's social media profiles. As part of the intervention, 600 participants will be incentivized to follow their mayor’s social media account, while another 600 participants will be incentivized to follow their municipality’s social media account. The remaining participants will serve as a control group.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-04-29
Intervention End Date
2025-07-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Likelihood of voting for the mayor and evaluation of the mayor's performance across different tasks.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
See Preanalysis plan.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Likelihood of voting in the next municipal election, perception of whether the mayor kept electoral promises, priorities in local administration, and perceived communication efficiency of the mayor and municipality.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
See Preanalysis plan.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The survey will be administered by SWG, one of the leading surveying companies in Italy. It will consist of two waves 80 days apart and target (at least) 1,800 individuals who are active social media users (defined as using social media almost every day) and follow neither the mayor's, nor the municipality's profiles on social media. 600 individuals will be incentivized to follow the social media of the mayor and 600 individuals the social media of their municipality. Treated individuals are asked to share a screenshot showing that they started following the page at the end of Wave 1 and halfway between the two waves. For more details see preanalysis plan.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
1,800 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
600 individuals control, 600 individuals in mayor treatment, 600 individuals in municipality treatment.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
A sample of 600 in each treatment and control group allows us to detect a minimum effect of 0.16 standard deviations for our outcome variables.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Ethics Committee of the Department of Political Science, Law, and International Studies. University of Padua, Italy.
IRB Approval Date
2025-03-10
IRB Approval Number
2025TitIIICl13Fasc19.11
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials