Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses

Last registered on April 30, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015918
Initial registration date
April 29, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 30, 2025, 1:41 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

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Primary Investigator

Name
Zoe Cullen
Affiliation
Harvard Business School
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
David Atkin
PI Affiliation
MIT
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PI Name
Ebehi Iyoha
PI Affiliation
Harvard
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-03-22
End date
2029-04-29
Keywords
Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
Tariffs, uncertainty, beliefs
JEL code(s)
F13, F14
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Recent trade conflicts have underscored the importance of understanding how firms respond to policy uncertainty. This paper examines the effects of such uncertainty during the recent U.S. trade wars, focusing not only on the economic consequences but also on the reasoning and motivations behind firm behavior. We highlight how firms navigate ambiguous policy environments, sometimes pursuing objectives that extend beyond traditional profit maximization.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Atkin, David, Zoe Cullen and Ebehi Iyoha. 2025. "Navigating Choppy Waters: How U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Small Businesses." AEA RCT Registry. April 30. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15918-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2025-04-22
Intervention End Date
2029-04-29

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Sales changes due to tariffs, Unit costs changes due to tariffs, Employment changes due to tariffs, Sourcing country changes due to tariffs, Tariff expectations, Inflation expectations, Exchange rate expectations
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Business closures, Business pivots, Export locations, Market share expectations, Own share of market expectations
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We have a collaboration with a company that repeatedly surveys small business owners about the state of their business and their expectations. The surveys embed randomized survey modules that introduce exogenous variation in the beliefs of business owners over future tariff policies and their impact, which we analyze to draw causal inferences. We describe the details of the research design in the following section.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization was carried out randomly by computer.
Randomization Unit
Randomization was at the level of the business owner.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
0
Sample size: planned number of observations
We are not collecting the data directly ourselves but analyzing secondary data. In expectation, our partner will collect 5,000 baseline responses and 2,500 follow-up responses.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 800 business owners per treatment arm in intervention (a), and 500 business owners per treatment intervention (b), which includes only those who import or sell products exposed to foreign competition.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Harvard
IRB Approval Date
2025-03-22
IRB Approval Number
IRB20-0465
IRB Name
MIT IRB
IRB Approval Date
2025-04-03
IRB Approval Number
E-6687
Analysis Plan