The Migrant Penalty in Retail Entrepreneurship - Experimental evidence from South Africa

Last registered on August 01, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Migrant Penalty in Retail Entrepreneurship - Experimental evidence from South Africa
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015981
Initial registration date
May 08, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 01, 2025, 10:03 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
INSEAD

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Cornell University
PI Affiliation
Bocconi University

Additional Trial Information

Status
Withdrawn
Start date
2025-04-30
End date
2025-07-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
- Globally, a large proportion of immigrants, facing exclusion from local labor markets (Liu 2015), earn their livelihoods by operating small retail businesses. This research examines demand-side biases that migrant entrepreneurs face in the marketplace and their economic implications. Our empirical context is South Africa, where xenophobia is a notable social issue, with the growth of grassroots movements like "Put South Africa First" (Vhumbunu and Mawire 2023). Using an incentive-compatible conjoint experiment with 3,000 consumers in the field, we estimate willingness to pay for a local (vs. migrant) shopkeeper, thus establishing a migrant price penalty. We assess heterogeneity in this penalty based on consumers’ political attitudes and economic conditions. Next, we estimate willingness to pay for assimilation signals and higher levels of customer service to examine whether these marketing strategies can offset the migrant price penalty. We complement this demand-side analysis with a supply-side audit of prices for a standard basket of retail items. During this audit, we use an incentive-compatible method to elicit beliefs from migrant shopkeepers about the extent of consumer biases they face and assess whether these beliefs can explain variation in observed prices, controlling for other explanatory factors such as local competition, business acumen, and input costs. Finally, we quantify other non-price related costs of operating as a migrant entrepreneur stemming from susceptibility to xenophobic crime, including inventory depletion, financial losses, and reduced operational hours. Our findings hold important implications for designing policies that promote inclusive market environments for migrant entrepreneurs.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Kankanhalli, Shreya, Rupali Kaul and Iris Steenkamp. 2025. "The Migrant Penalty in Retail Entrepreneurship - Experimental evidence from South Africa." AEA RCT Registry. August 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15981-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The 3000 consumers will be randomized into the following 2 conditions -
Condition A) They complete the conjoint survey for a "perishable product" i.e., bread
Condition B) They complete the conjoint survey for a "non-perishable product" i.e., crisps
Randomization will be automated within the survey software tool. There is no separate control condition.
Intervention (Hidden)
Our research will involve 3,000 local South African consumers who will complete a 20-minute survey featuring a choice-based conjoint experiment. The survey will proceed as follows:

First, participants will complete a screener to confirm eligibility. They will be asked two questions: (1) Are you South African? and (2) Have you shopped at a spaza shop (a small local retail store) in the past three months? Only those who answer “yes” to both questions will be eligible to participate.

Second, eligible participants will be introduced to a hypothetical shopping scenario. They will be asked to imagine purchasing a basic grocery item—such as bread—from a retail store. They will be shown different versions of bread packets, each varying in specific features. The instructions will read:
“You will see bread packets with different features such as price and store characteristics. The packet size is standard across options. On each screen, please select the option you prefer.”

In each choice task, participants will choose between four product options. Each option will vary along four randomized attributes:

Price – multiple levels: e.g., average market price ±5%

Ethnicity of shop owner – South African or Foreign (operationalized via a short shopkeeper bio)

Customer service – High (longer hours, WhatsApp-based customer service) vs. Low (shorter hours, no WhatsApp channel)

Brand – Varying product brands

This constituted the first version of the conjoint experiment. In a second version, we introduced a fifth attribute to better explore the distinction between statistical discrimination and animosity-based discrimination:

Store Safety – Whether the store has been (a) targeted by crime, (b) involved in criminal activity, or (c) neither.

In both versions, participants will also complete demographic and attitudinal questions, including age, gender, employment status, occupation, and education. Additionally, we will ask about their views on immigration policy, perceptions of product and store hygiene, experiences with crime, and whether they have received government benefits (e.g., unemployment support). These data will help us examine heterogeneity in attitudes toward foreign-owned retailers.

Finally, participants will receive 40 Rand as compensation, comprising the cost of one product randomly selected from their choices and the remaining balance as change. The selected product will be provided at the end of the survey to maintain incentive compatibility.
Intervention Start Date
2025-04-30
Intervention End Date
2025-07-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Product choices and beliefs on immigrants and violence.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
A survey based randomization into different product attributes using conjoint design.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by the Sawtooth Software
Randomization Unit
Individual Respondent (A spaza store customer)
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clustering
Sample size: planned number of observations
3500 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
~50%: Into a perishable conjoint survey and
~50%: Into non-perishable conjoint survey.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Cornell IRB
IRB Approval Date
2024-11-26
IRB Approval Number
IRB0148974

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials